DECEMBER TRADE #2 - BUY EUR/USD

December 24, 2009 3:30pm (Manila)

Rest of the trade is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips.

I'm hitting the road for a well-deserved Christmas vacation. As such, will be unable to monitor and manage this trade.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: +60 pips

Total: +120 pips

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December 24, 2009 3:23pm (Manila)

First half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips.

Second half now risk-free with stops moved to breakeven.

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December 24, 2009 10:00am (Manila)

It's Christmas Eve, and I was wrogn that my previous trade would be my last one for the year.

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4337 (4 lots)
Stop - 1.4289
Limit 1 - 1.4367
Limit 2 - 1.4399

At 9:30 pm (Manila time), US Core Durable Orders and Unemployment Claims will come out, expected to be bullish for the USD which I think will cause a wave of risk appetite and drive this pair higher.

On the technical side, RSI indicates that the pair is oversold on the Daily chart and is primed for at least a modest rise. That rise could be today.

DECEMBER TRADE #1 - BUY EUR/CHF

December 22, 2009 3:39pm (Manila)

Rest of trade got stopped-out at breakeven yesterday afternoon. This is probabaly my last trade for the year.

More pips to catch next year!

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December 21, 2009 11:07am (Manila)

1st half is out @ +50 pips/lot for a total of +100 pips.

2nd half is now at breakeven. Back to sleep. :-)

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December 21, 2009 9:30am (Manila)

BUY EUR/CHF @ 1.4903 (4 lots)
STOP - 1.4850
Limit 1 - 1.4953
Limit2 - 1.5050

See my previous post...

Trade Plan (Dec 21 '09)

I'm back from hibernation after more than a month of not trading. This silence on trading was mainly due to the forex market entering a technical sideways trend --- caused by the strength of the USD and a few weeks back, the spectre of us going back into the abyss with the Dubai World near-default.

Well, after reviewing the charts, I believe there are two (2) pairs worth taking a look at: the EUR/CHF and the EUR/USD.

EUR/CHF (Euro-Swiss Franc)

This pair breached the 1.5000 mark last week. The last three times in the past twelve months that this pair blew below that line, the SNB came into the market with guns blazing, selling the Franc and sending the pair blasting to the air 200-600 pips. Well, it might just happen again. So, I'm keeping a close eye on this pair with a couple of "ambush" positions slightly above 1.5000.


EUR/CHF Daily Chart as of Friday Dec 18, 2009


EUR/USD

The USD has been on a stampede the last two weeks. This strength sent the EUR/USD pair to a 3-month low. RSI indicates that the pair is alreday oversold as well the Bollinger Bands. So, I am waiting for a setup on this pair to form and go LONG.


EUR/USD Daily Chart as of Friday Dec 18, 2009

QUICK TRADE UPDATES (Nov 19)

ALL TRADES ARE OUT. The AUD, NZD and CAD all retreated in front of a USD onslaught caused by a number of Central Bank heads talking-up the dollar. Also, some disappointing data about the US economy, particularly housing data, contributed to this retreat.

I am looking to re-enter once favorable circumstances present themselves. For now, I'm on the sidelines waiting for this turbulence to pass.

Click below for the final results of these trades.

AUD/USD Trade Result:

NZD/USD Trade Result:

USD/CAD Trade Result:


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I still have 3 active trades (LONG AUD/USD, LONG NZD/USD and SHORT USD/CAD)

Status:

NZD/USD Trade:

Took out 1 set (4 lots) for +261 pips/lot. Total of +1,044 pips.

Stops currently at breakeven for 2nd set (4 lots now running +176 pips/lot).


AUD/USD Trade:

2 lots @ +181 pips/lot (Stops moved to protect +50 pips/lot)

2 lots @ +260 pips/lot (Stops moved to protect +130 pips/lot)


USD/CAD TRade:

2 lots @ +193 pips/lot (Stops moved to protect +50 pips/lot)

2 lots @ +191 pips/lot (Stops moved to protect +50 pips/lot)


http://forexfoundry.blogspot.com/search/label/In%20Progress

From Bloomberg: Bernanke Signals ‘Extended’ Low-Rate Period May Become Longer

Looks like its still a long drag to recovery...

==========================================================

Bernanke Signals ‘Extended’ Low-Rate Period May Become Longer

Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

By Scott Lanman

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s diagnosis of a weak U.S. economy and labor market signaled that the central bank’s extended period of low borrowing costs may get even longer.

Bernanke said “significant economic challenges remain,” with lending constrained and the jobless rate above 10 percent. Speaking in New York yesterday, he said U.S. asset prices aren’t out of line with underlying values, and central bank policy will ensure that the “dollar is strong.”

Get the rest here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a3BlApikRmTY

NOVEMBER TRADE #5 - BUY EUR/USD

Nov 18, 2009 8:00am (Manila)

Trade got stopped-out at -152 pips/lot for a total of -608 pips. Awts.

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Nov 17, 2009 1:06pm (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4966 (4 lots)
Stop - 1.4814
Limit 1 - 1.4896
LImit 2 - 1.5037

My third EUR/USD trade in as many days. Tonight, a slew of US economic announcements are due (expected to be on the bright side) which could trigger further risk appetite away from the USD.

NOVEMBER TRADE #4 - BUY EUR/USD

Nov 17, 2009 10:10am (Manila)

Second half is out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Hlaf: 0 pips

Total: +60 pips

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Nov 17, 2009 8:26 am (Manila)

Limit 1 was hit last night right after positive m/m retail sales data came out of the US. Limit 1 yielded +60 pips total.

Trade now risk-free with stops of second half at breakeven.

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Nov 16, 2009 2:00 pm (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4972 (4 lots)
Stop - 1.4812
Limit 1 - 1.5002
Limit 2 - 1.5038

I'm banking on continued dollar weakness as more optimistic news comes out of the Eurozone.

On the technicals, a bounce occurred on the daily charts.

NOVEMBER TRADE #3 - BUY EUR/USD

Nov 16, 2009 8:30am (Manila)

Early this morning, when the markets opened, my Limit 2 was hit for +72/lot and a total of +144 pips.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: +144 pips

Total: +204 pips

Wonderful!!!

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Nov 14, 2009 8:11am (Manila)

Sometime last night, limit 1 was hit @ +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips.

Market is currently closed so I will move my stops to breakeven first thing on MOnday morning to make this trade breakeven.

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Nov 13, 2009 4:27pm (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD (4 lots) @ 1.4877
Stop - 1.4803
Limit 1 - 1.4907
Limit 2 - 1.4949

Here's the fundamental reason:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZfeXf1N6uV4&pos=1

German GDP accelerated in the 3rd quarter of the year. This could fuel hopes that Europe is startin to drag its way out of the worst slump since WWII.

Technically, RSI and MACD suggest enough room for an upward thrust on both daily and hourly charts.

QUICK TRADE UPDATES (Nov 11)

Limit 1 of AUD/USD Trade hit. Over 900+ pips yielded.

See details HERE:

Quick Trade Updates - Nov 11

USD/CAD Trade hit 1st Limit. See details here: http://forexfoundry.blogspot.com/2009/11/november-trade-1-sell-usd-cad-in.html

NOVEMBER TRADE #2 - BUY EUR/USD

Nov 10, 2009 8:27pm (Manila)

Second half is out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +60 pips

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Nov 10, 2009 7:13pm (Manila)

Limit 1 hit at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips.

Stops of 2nd half moved to breakeven making the trade risk-free.

German ZEW economic sentiment index dropped 51.1 in October from the previous 56. Investors' confidence for a strong growth next year was mellowed by the fact that stimulus packages will be removed. The fact remains --- there will be growth, not just that much. The stimulus packages that have spurred growth this year are crutches for the Eurozone economy. What do you expect from someone who leaves his crutch behind? Expect him to slow down a bit. But then again, he starts walking... on his own.

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Nov 10, 2009 10:54am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4981 (4 lots)
STOP - 1.4806
Limit 1 - 1.5011
Limit 2 - 1.5059

At 6pm tonight, ZEW Economic Sentiment data will come out which could be positive for the German economy and thus, for the Eurozone as a whole.

QUICK TRADE UPDATES

Nov 9, 2009 4:12 pm (Manila Time)

My patience is paying off. The commodity pairs that I entered trade last week are slowly gaining ground. With the busy calendar last week behind us, the AUD, NZD and CAD are strengthening against the USD.

All stops are still in their original places.

AUD/USD

1st Set (4 lots) - currently up +121 pips/lot
2nd Set (4 lots) - currently up +200 pips/lot


NZD/USD

1st Set (4 lots) - currently up +68 pips/lot
2nd Set (4 lots) - currently up +151 pips/lot


USD/CAD

1st Set (4 lots) - currently up +25 pips/lot
2nd Set (4 lots) - currently up +23 pips/lot

NOVEMBER TRADE #1 - SELL USD /CAD

Nov 20, 2009 8:55am (Manila)

USD strengthened this week after a chorus of Central Bankers talked-up the dollar and some disappointing housing data from the US.

2nd half of the trade is out @ +50 pips/lot for a total of +200 pips.

Summary:

1st Half (2 sets): +532 pips
2nd Half (2 sets): + 200 pips

Total: +700 pips

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Nov 11, 2009 7:51am (Manila)

Sometime last night, while I was shelling out a lot of Z's, limit 1 was reached

Set 1

1st Half: +134 pips/lot, total of +268 pips
2nd Half: +132 pips/lot, total of +264 pips

Total for 1st Halves: +532 pips

2nd Halves of 2 more sets are now trading with stops moved to breakeven making it risk-free.


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Nov 4, 2009 4:00 pm (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 1.0675
Stop - 1.1145
Limit 1 - 1.0541
Limit 2 - 1.0213

Same reason as my previous post. With the US economy showing signs of a recovery and China continuing to rampage with near-double-digit growth, oil price pressure will mount.

OCTOBER TRADE #6 - SELL USD/CAD

Nov. 2, 2009 9:27am (Manila)

Just got back in after the All Saint's Day holiday. Unfortunately, the pair reversed as fear slipped back in the forex market as world stocks fall.

This trade fell -146 pip/lot for a total of -584 pips.

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Oct 30, 2009 10:00am (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 1.0662 (4 lots)
Stop - 1.0808
Limit 1 - 1.0632
Limit 2 - 1.0600

On the daily chart, a reversal seems to be in place which stopped the USD rally dead cold.

On the fundamentals' side, Oil races toward $85 a barrel and the US economy grew by a surprising 3.5% the past quarter. A combination of risk appetite and expectations of growing demand for oil should be positive for the CAD. Fasten your seatbelts folks, looks like high prices at the pump are here to stay.

Why this might be important: Canada is the single largest supplier of oil to the continental United States --- and not a middle-east oil baron. The US GDP number last night might lead to suggest further improvements in the US economy in the coming months. Improving US economy means more demand for oil --- and the US gulps a lot! This should keep oil prices high which should spur demand for the CAD.

OCTOBER TRADE #5 - BUY EUR/USD

Nov 2, 2009 9:32am (Manila)

Trade got stopped-out at -76 pips/lot for a total of -304 pips.

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Oct 30, 2009 9:23am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4836 (4 Lots)
Stop - 1.4760
Limit 1 - 1.4866
Limit 2 - 1.4918

German Retails Sales data comes out at 3:00pm today. It is expected to be positive for the Euro. This, combined with the positive US GDP data last night should trigger further risk appetite and drive this pair higher. On the daily charts, there is a bounce which could be the start of the reversal of a trend which saw the dollar hammer the other majors this past week.

Why this might be important: Germany is the biggest economy in the Eurozone. Retail Sales impacts consumer spending which is a big chunk of GDP. The expectation is that higher retail sales will translate to higher GDP number, which will have a domino effect of causing price pressures which would result in higher inflation which will cause the European Central Bank to raise interest rates as part of the inflation-control mandate. Quite a long trail, isn't it?

OCTOBER TRADE #4 - BUY NZD/USD

Nov 20, 2009 8:58am (Manila)

2nd Set of this trade is out at breakeven. USD strength is due to Central Bankers' talk-up of the dollar and bad news about US Housing data.

Summary:

1st Set: +1,044 pips
2nd Set: 0 pips

Total: +1,044 pips

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Nov 18, 2009 7:00 pm (Manila)

I'm taking out Set 1 of this trade for a gain of +261 pips/lot for a total of 1,044 pips.

Second set (4 lots) currently running at +176 pips/lot. Stops moved to breakeven making the rest of the trade risk-free.

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Nov 11, 2009 10:52am (Manila)

12 days after, trade is up

Set 1 (4 lots): +196 pips/lot
Set 2 (4 lots): +113 pips/lot

Stops remain at starting levels.

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October 30, 2009 9:02 am (Manila)

BUY NZD/USD (4 Lots) @ 0.7302
Stop - 0.6801
Limit 1 - 0.7630
Limit 2 - 0.8222

On the weekly and daily charts, this pair has dropped from last week and appears to be headed for a return flight. Also, Positive economic indicators for the Kiwi and USD (primarily the US GDP data last night) should spur risk appetite.

OCTOBER TRADE #3 - BUY AUD/USD

Nov 20, 2009 9:01am (Manila)

The rest of the trade is out due the retreat caused by the strength of the dollar.

2 lots out @ +50 pips/lot for a total of +200 pips.
2 lots out @ +130 pips/lot for a total of +520 pips.

Summary for this trade:

1st Set Total: +914 pips
2nd Set Total: +720 pips

Overall Total: +1,634 pips


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Nov 11, 2009 4:37 pm (Manila)

Limit 1 is hit for 2 sets of this trade:

1st Set: +268 pips/lot for a total of +536 pips.
2nd Set: +189 pips/lot for a total of +378 pips.

Total: +914 pips

Stops of remaining half moved to breakeven making the trade risk-free. Nice!!!

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Nov 11, 2009 10:47 am (Manila)

After 12 days trades are up significantly. Stops remain where they are:

1st Set (4 lots): +233 pips/lot
2nd Set (4 lots): +153 pips/lot

A number of economic indicators from China just came out negative (CPI y/y, Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y and PPI y/y) and is contributing to a slight pull-back. However, I remain confident that the AUD will continue to appreciate vs the USD. Chinese Industrial y/y Production just came out better than expected.

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Oct 30, 2009 9:00am (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD (4 lots) @ 0.9146
Stop - 0.8475
Limit 1 - 0.9335
Limit 2 - 0.9849

On the weekly chart, this pair has dropped significantly from last week and appears to be headed to a return flight. Also, US GDP data last night came out positive which should trigger a wave of risk appetite and propel this pair higher.

Trade Plan for the USD - Oct 29 '09

A flurry of indicators since last week had risk-aversion pervade the whole nine yards of the FX market. As a result, he USD has been on a rampage all week. This could tonight, though with preliminary US GDP data and Unemployment Claims expected to come out in the positive.

If the numbers come out better than expected, the major USD pairs could turn around after about 4-8 hours of volatility. However, if things continue to be as bad as the past week has become, we could see theses pairs reach intra-month lows.

My plan... to wait in 'ambush' for either of the eventualities.

Trade details to be posted soon.

OCTOBER TRADE #2 - SELL AUD/USD

Oct 30, 2009 9:00am (Manila)

Unfortunately, trade went the other way and got stopped-out. Total loss of -340 pips.

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Oct 29, 2009 8:00 am (Manila)

SELL AUD/USD @ 08966
Stop - 0.9051
Limit 1 - 0.8936
Limit 2 - 0.8874

Australian HIA New Homes Sales printed at a dim -4.5% vs. expectation of an 11% increase. I expect this to dash hopes of a continued rally of the Aussies' economy.

New Home Sales is a forward-looking indicator. The rationale is that if there are fewer home buyers today, there would be fewer buyers of goods needed to fill those houses in the future --- there would be less demand for construction supplies for renovation, less demand for electronics and appliances, etc.

This is my live trade!

OCTOBER TRADE #1 - SELL GBP/USD

Second half is out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +240 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +240 pips

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Oct 26, 2009 1:06pm (Manila)

1st Half is out at +120 pips/lot for a total of +240 pips. REst are secured and risk-free with stops moved to breakeven.

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Ending the week with this trade up +62 pips/lot.

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Oct 23, 2009 6pm (Manila)

SELL GBP/USD @ 1.6373
STOP - 1.6701
LIMIT 1 - 1.6253
LIMIT 2 - 1.6102

GBP gets a pounding after disappointing GDP data for the UK. I expect this to reverberate early on next week. On the daily chart, the pair looks primed for a correction which could last 2-3 days.

SEPT TRADE #7 - BUY EUR/USD

Sept 30, 2009 2:44 pm (Manila)

Limit 2 is out at +52 pips/lot for a total of +104 pips.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: +104 pips

Total: +164 pips

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Sept 30, 2009 1:30 pm (Manila)

Limit 1 was hit about 3 hours ago (I was away from my PC). 1st half yielded a total of +60 pips. Stops for 2nd half just moved to breakeven making the trade risk-free.

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Sept 30, 2009 8:05 am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4588
STOP - 1.4516
Limit 1 - 1.4618
Limit 2 - 1.4640

At 3:55 pm today, German Unemployment Rate data comes which is expected to be significantly-better than previous and boost the Euro against the surging greenback.

SEPT TRADE #6 - BUY AUD/USD

Sept 30, 2009 1:25pm (Manila)

As I write this, both trades are out. Autralian Retail Sales came out at 0.9%, better than the 0.6% expectation.

Retail Sales correlate directly to consumer spending, which is the largest part of GDP. With higher consumer spending, demand for Australian products increases. This pushes inflation up and forces the RBA (hopefully, in the future) to raise interest rates as part of their inflation control mandate.

Summary:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: +72 pips

Total: +132 pips

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Sept 30, 2009 8:00am (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD @ 0.8744
STOP - 0.8665
Limit 1 - 0.8774
Limit 2 - 0.8780

In about an hour and a half, Australian Retail Sales data come out which should be better than previous and bullish for the Aussie.

SEPT TRADE #5 - BUY NZD/USD

Sept 25, 2009 8:38 am (Manila)

At about 8pm last night, Limit 1 was hit @ +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips.

About 30 minutes later, I took out the rest of the trade @ +56 pips/lot for a total of +112 pips.


Summary:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: +112 pips

Total: +172 pips


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Sept 24, 2009 8:33am (Manila)

BUY BZD/USD @ 0.7207 (4 Lots)
Stop - 0.7149
Limit 1 - 0.7237
Limit 2 - 0.7300

Westpac Consumer Sentiment is out and broadly-positive --- good for the Kiwi. On the hourly chart, the pair has bounced back from this mornings volatility.

SEPT TRADE #4 - BUY EUR/USD

Sept 25, 2009 8:34 am (Manila)

Took out the rest of this trade last night at +58 pips/lot for a total of +116 pips.

Summary:

First Half: +60 pips
Second Half: +116 pips

Total: +176 pips

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Sept 24, 2009 3:05 pm (Manila)

First half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips.

Second half stops moved to breakeven making it risk-free.

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Sept 24, 2009 8:19am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4734 (4 Lots)
Stop - 1.4675
Limit 1 - 1.4674
Limit 2 - 1.4833

US Interest Rate decision is out and stays the same --- bullish for this pair. The volatility brought about by this morning's decision appears to have subsided and the pair looks headed north. Also, this afternoon, German IFO Business Climate is expected to come out better that previous --- again bullish for this pair.

LONG-TERM TRADE - AUD/USD

Sept 18, 2009 8:14 pm (Manila)

I'm taking out this Long-Term Trade today while it's still up +107 pips/lot. Seeing the daily and hourly charts, looks like this pair is primed for a correction - could be a big one as it has been walking the upper bollinger band for the past week.

In Summary:

1st Half: +200 pips
2nd Half: +214 pips

Total: +414 pips

NICE!!!

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Sept 16, 2009 3:00 pm (Manila)

Holy crap! I entered a long-term trade I think two weeks ago and I did not post it here.

Details of the trade:

BUY AUD/USD @ 8600 (4 lots)
Stop: 0.8517
Limit 1: 0.8700
Limit 2: 0.8800

Just today, first half is out at +100 pips/lot for a total of +200 pips. Stops of second half now moved to BE.

Update 9/16

Been busy on my business (computers and tech stuff) the past few weeks. It's still on startup and stabilizing mode. Hence, I haven't been able to focus much on trading.

The market had a dip early this week caused mainly by trade tensions between China and the US. Fearful traders and investors ran to the safety of the dollar in case a full-blown trade war ensues between the two superpowers. We all know it ain't gonna happen - unless, of course, they both want economic suicide. There's just too much interdependence between their economies so I believe things will subside in the coming days.

For now, I remain bullish for the EUR, CAD, GBP, Kiwi and Aussie. Will be trading again in a few days.

SEPT TRADE # 3 - BUY EUR/GBP

Sept 8, 2009 8:00 am (Manila)

Pair appears to be hitting some resistance. Taking the pair out at +40 pips/lot for a total of +80 pips. Nice!

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: +80 pips

Total: +140 pips


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Sept 8, 2009 00:40 am (Manila)

Just past midnight. Limit 1 is hit at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips. Moving stops of second half to breakeven to make it risk-free.

I'm hitting the sack!

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Sept 7, 2009 7:05 pm (Manila)

BUY EUR/GBP @ 0.8731 (4 lots)
Stop - 0.8718
Limit 1 - 0.8761
Limit 2 - 0.8835

Tomorrow, UK and Eurozone data on Industrial Production will come out about two hours from each other. The general expectation is that the European numbers will be better than that of the UK. Also, on the technical side, a bounce is forming up on the daily chart.

Trade Plan for Today (Sept 3, 2009)

AUD/USD

In about an hour, Australian Trade Balance comes out. I expect it to surprise to the upside with the recent developments in China.

Hence, I am placing an Entry-Stop Order below:

ES BUY AUD/USD @ 0.8364
Stop - 0.8318
Limit 1 - 0.8394
Limit 2 - 0.8438

Hedge:

ES SELL AUD/USD @ 0.8318
Stop - 0.8364
Limit 1 - 0.8288
Limit 2 - 0.8248


GBP/USD and EUR/USD

UK Services PMI comes out at 4:30. I expect the numbers to be positive for the Pound. I will be looking to enter once a setup on the hourly chart appears. On the dailies, this pair saw a bounce yesterday.

ECB (European Central Bank) Interest Rate announce is up at 7pm but before that, Eurozone Retail Sales will be released at 5pm. I am looking to BUY EUR/USD once a favorable setup presents itself on the hourly chart. On the daily chart, a bounce is found yesterday.

SEPT TRADE #2 - BUY GBP/USD

Sept 2, 2009 4:00 pm (Manila)

Trade is out at breakeven as UK Contruction PMI disappoints. At one point, the trade was 1 pip from hitting the first limit. I moved the stops to breakeven when the pair began a descent sometime noon. Not bad, there are more pips to win in other days.

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Sept 2, 2009 9:50am (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6161
Stop - 1.6103
Limit 1 - 1.6191
Limit 2 - 1.6254

At 4:30 PM, UK Construction PMI comes out which I expect to be bullish for the Pound.

Hedge:

ES SELL GBP/USD @ 1.6103
Stop - 1.6161
Limit 1 - 1.6073
Limit 2 - 1.6043

SEPT TRADE # 1 - BUY AUD/USD

Sept 2, 2009 11:08 am (Manila)

Taking the 2nd half out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips. Pair is encountering resistance at the 20-period MVA on the hourly chart.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: +60 pips

Total: +120 pips

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Sept 2, 2009 9:32 am (Manila)

Australian GDP just came out at 0.6% which is better than the 0.3% expectation. With this, the pair just headed for the moon and limit 1 just got hit at +30 pips/lot for a total of +40 pips.

2nd half is not risk-free with stops moved to breakeven.


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Sept 2, 2009 9:10 am (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD @ 0.8266
Stop - 0.8229
Limit 1 - 0.8296
Limit 2 - 0.8320

In about 20 mins, Australian GDP data comes out which I expect to surprise to the upside. This should be good for the Aussie.

Standing Down Aug 17-21

I'm standing down this week as the market is a bit choppy and directionless. Last friday, investors and traders jumped to the safety of the US dollar as US data came out disappointing. This week, it has been a roller-coaster ride as risk-aversion re-entered the market. I will wait for a clear pattern before trading again.

Enjoy the week!

August Trade #4 - BUY EUR/USD

August 13, 2009 2:48 pm (Manila)

Taking out the second half at +34 pips/lot for a total of +68 pips. The pair hit the upper bollinger band and RSI indicate the pair is oversold in the hourly chart.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: +68 pips

Total: +128 pips

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August 13, 2009 2:21 pm (Manila)

1st half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips. German GDP came out muc better than expected - the German economy grew the past period.

2nd half is now risk-free with stops moved to breakeven.

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August 13, 2009 9:39am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4229 (4 lots)
Stop - 1.4150
Limit 1 - 1.4259
Limit 2 - 1.4280

At 2:30 pm today (Manila), German GDP Preliminary data comes out. Expectation is of a lesser contraction than previous. This shoulr be bullish for the Euro. Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and thus would influence the Euro heavily.

Trade Plans for August 7

No doubt that the US Non-Farm Payrolls tonight will be the biggest market-mover. But before that, here are some trade plans.

BUY EUR/USD - German Trade Balance comes out at 2:00 pm (Manila), expected to be better than previous. This should be enough to give this pair a lift ahead of NFP. Currently, the pair is treading higher on the hourly chart. I will wait for it to break past the hourly 20-period MVA and enter into the buy zone before entering a trade.

SELL GBP/USD - UK PPI comes out at 4:30 pm (Manila). It is expected to be in the negative which is bad for the Pound. On the hourly chart, the pair is trending higher. This may just be profit-taking after yesterday's drop. I will wait for it to register a failure near 1.6844 before entering a trade.

BUY USD/CAD - Canadian Unemployment Rate is expected to register an increase. This should be bad for the CAD. Currently, on the hourlies, the pair is heading lower. I am waiting for a bounce near 1.0730 before entering LONG.

August Trade #3 - BUY GBP/USD

August 6, 2009 7:00 pm (Manila)

Surprise, surprise, surprise. The BoE dropped bomb on the market today with an unexpected increase in their QE program. I guess somebody decided that they want a real recovery --- and fast! And they're willing to get the Pound get pounded in the process. Ouch!

Trade is out at -57 pips/lot for a total of -228 pips. There are days like this.

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August 6, 2009 1:50pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.7004
Stop - 1.6947
Limit 1 - 1.7034
Limit 2 - 1.7064

Tonight, the BoE releases their interest rate decision. It is expected that the central bank would keep interest rates steady and the Quantitative Easing Program untouched. Such moves would be a boost of confidence for the Pound.

August Trade #2 - BUY GBP/USD

Aug 5, 2009 6:00 pm (Manila)

The second half is out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +60 pips

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Aug 5, 2009 4:40 pm (Manila)

First half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips. Second half is not risk-free with stops moved to breakeven.

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Aug 5, 2009 4:30pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6966 (4 lots)
Stop - 1.6914
Limit 1 - 1.6996
Limit 2 - 1.7026

A slew of economic indicators just came out --- all positive for the Pound. Hopefully, this would be enough to break the deadlock that has been in place on the USD-pairs for the past 24 hours.

August Trade #1 - BUY GBP/USD

Aug 4, 2009 3:04 pm (Manila)

2nd half is out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +40 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +40 pips

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Aug 4, 2009 2:40 pm (Manila)

First half is out at +20 pips/lot for a total of +40 pips. 2nd half stops moved to breakeven to make the trade risk-free.

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Aug 4, 2009 2:30 pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6974 (4 lots)
Stop - 1.6915
Limit 1 - 1.6994
Limit 2 - 1.7014

At 4:30 pm today (Manila), UK Construction PMI comes out expected to be better than previous.

This is a survey of Construction Insdustry Purchasing Managers. Their views on future purchases is a leading indicator of econoic health. Higher number suggests that companies are more likely to make purchases and thus increase demand for the country's currency.

Trade Plans for August 4

I'm trading again after nearly a month.

The theme across the Forex market today is economic recovery. Data from the past week are screaming that the worst may be over. As such, risk appetite is in the market.

For today, here are the pairs I am looking at:

AUD/USD - Australia's Housing Price Index (HPI) just came out at a whopping 4.2%, significantly better than the 2.1% expectation. The AUD has been in a rally for the past three hours, rising more than 40 pips. However, the pair is currently walking the upper bollinger band and is oversold. I will wait for the pair to drop to somewhere near 0.8406 (38.2% fibo and 20-period MVA) before going LONG. Also, at 12:30 today (Manila), the RBA releases their latest rate statement. No fireworks expected but then again...

GBP/USD - At 4:30 pm today (Manila), UK Construction PMI comes out, expected to be slightly better than previous. This could be another catalyst for continued move up of the Pound. the pair is currently oversold (RSI) and threading the upper bollinger band. Will wait for it to drop before going LONG.

July Trade # 6 - BUY GBP/USD

7/30/2009 5:40 pm (Manila)

Unfortunately, trade got stopped out at -75 pips/lot for a total of -300 pips.

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7/29/2009 9:05 am (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6455
Stop - 1.6380
Limit 1 - 1.6485
Limit 2 - 1.6546

At 4:30 pm (Manila), UK Net Lending to Individuals and Mortgage Approvals come out and are expected to be positive for the Pound. This could be indicative that individuals in the UK can now afford to have loans which is a sign of improvement in an economy.

Standing down this week (Week 29)

I'm standing-down from trading this week. The market is awfully choppy with hopes of early recovery from the reccession starting to dim.

July Trade # 5 - BUY GBP/USD

Trade got stopped-out at -76 pips/lot for a total of -456 pips. Bummer!

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July 7, 2009 8:43 am (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6276 (6 lots)
Stop -1.6200
Limit 1 - 1.6306
Limit 2 - 1.6336

At about 4:30 this afternoon, UK data comes out which could surprise to the upside. Also, speculation came out that the Bank of England could boost their Quantitative Easing program which should be bearish for the Pound.

Game Plan for Week 28

Mixed US data and disappointing numbers from the UK and the Eurozone resulted in a dollar rally and risk-aversion at the end of the week (Week 27 - June 29 to July 3). The economic recovery appears to be fizzling out. As such, I am betting that the dollar rally would continue early on the week ahead (Week 28 - July 6 - 10). US Non-Farm payrolls alone might not give investors and traders enough reason to be optimistic. There is also a light array of market-moving US data coming this week which might be a good thing - no critical US data means that we can concentrate on data from other majors. The only significant numbers from the US are the Non-Mfg PMI (Monday, 10 pm) and Trade Balance (Friday, 8:30 pm).

Here's my game plan for the week:

Monday, July 6th

SELL GBP/USD - Halifax PMI data are going to trickle out of the British Isles. Numbers are expected to stay flat (0%) from previous. No improvement or less than this should be bearish for the Pound and could confirm that economic activity is stalling.

Will be watching Price Action on the following pairs: EUR/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY, as these could also be affected by continued dollar strength though no major announcement for them are due this day. If setups appear on the daily and hourly charts, I am looking to SELL EUR/USD and NZD/USD and BUY USD/JPY.

Tuesday, July 7th

SELL GBP/USD - at about 4:30 pm, UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production numbers come out, expected to show a slower increase. This should be bearish for the Pound.

SELL USD/CAD - Canadian data on Building Permits (8:30 pm) and Ivey PMI (10 pm) come out which are expected to come out with numbers bullish for the CAD. Hopefully, this should allow the CAD to buck the trend of the other majors.

SELL EUR/USD - French Trade Balance (2:45 pm) and German Factory Orders (6 pm) are due. I expect them to show bearish numbers for the Euro and kick this pair down further.

Wednesday, July 8th

SELL GBP/USD - On Wednesday, 7:00 am, UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence data comes out. Should the numbers show disappointing figures, the pair could go down further.

BUY AUD/USD - the AUD could be another major that could buck the trend on this day. Recent data showing Australia's trade with China is improving might cause Australian Consumer Sentiment (due 9am) to rise and be bullish for the Aussie.

SELL USD/JPY - Core Machinery Orders are due to come out at 7am, expecting to show marked improvement from previous data. If numbers print out better than expected, this should be bullish for the Yen.

Thursday, July 9th

AUD/USD - Data to watch is Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. My strategy will be to watch these data (due by 9am). If these print bullish for Aussie, BUY AUD/USD. If bearish for the Aussie, SELL AUD/USD.

Friday, July 10th

BUY GBP/USD - UK PPI is expected to print out better than previous at 4:30 pm. This should be bullish for the Pound and send this pair to a reverse direction by the end of the week.

July Trade # 4 - BUY EUR/USD

Trade got stopped out at -42 pips/lot for a total of -168 pips. Recession fears persist which led to the strength of the dollar.

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July 2, 2009 10:06 am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4137 (4 Lots)
Stop - 1.4095
Limit 1 - 1.4167
Limit 2 - 1. 4195

Tonight, US Non-Farm Payrolls come out. I expect the data to mirror what ADP provided last night. It should cause optimism in the Forex market and spur risk appetite. Ahead of this, the ECB will release it's decision on interest rates which should remain unchanged. This should be positive for the Euro and cause traders to favor it over the greenback.

On the technical charts, a hammer formed on the hourly chart which is also on the 20-hour MVA.

July Trade # 3 - BUY EUR/USD

July 1, 2009 3:30 pm (Manila)

I'm taking the pair out at +10 pips a lot for a total of +60 pips. Seeing some stress and resistance near the upper bollinger band on the hourly chart.

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July 1, 2009 3:00 pm (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4063 (6 lots)
Stop - 1.3990
Limit - 1.4093

Tonight, a number of US economic data comes out including the Non-Farm Payrolls preview from ADB. I expect the numbers to show positive signs for the US economy. This could encourage risk-appetite near-term and spur traders and investors to leave the dollar in favor of the Euro.

July Trade # 2 - BUY GBP/USD

July 1, 2009 4;19 pm (Manila)

Well, fate had its way and the second half just got taken out at breakeven. There you go, can't win them all.

Wonderful trade still.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +90 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +90 pips

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July 1, 2009 3:44 pm (Manila)

First half is out at +30 pips a lot for a total of +90 pips.

Second half stops moved to breakeven. Trade is now risk-free. Will let fate decide the outcome of this trade.

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July 1, 2009 2:45 pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6333 (6 lots)
Stop - 1.6370
Limit 1 - 1.6363
Limit 2 - 1.6500

At 4:30 pm today, UK Manufacturing PMI will come which is expected to show improvement from previous report. This should be bullish for the Pound.

This is a survey of Purchasing Managers who are asked to rate the relative level of business conditions. Since these Purchasing Managers hold the purse, they hold probably the most current and relevant insight into their company's view of the economy.

July Trade # 1 - BUY USD/JPY

July 1, 2009 9:14 am (Manila)

Second half is out at +40 pips/lot for a total of 120 pips.

Trade Summary:

1st Half: + 90 pips
2nd Half: +120 pips

Total: +210 pips

Fantastic trade # 1 for July!!!

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July 1, 2009 9:08 am (Manila)

First half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +90 pips.

Second half is now risk-free with stops moved to breakeven.

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July 1, 2009 7:55 am (Manila)

BUY USD/JPY @ 96.31 (6 lots)
Stop - 95.79
Limit 1 - 96.61
Limit 2 - 96.80

Fundamental Reason: At about 7:50 am today (Manila), Japanese Tankan Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices printed with disappointing figures. This should be bearish for the Yen.

Manufacturing plays a critical role in the Japanese economy. The Tankan Manufacturing Index is considered the best gauge of the industry's health due to its large sample size and a well-respected source.

This survey is leading indicator of economic health. Changes in sentiment in the industry can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. This should impact currencies.

The survey came out better than previous numbers (which hot rock-bottom last quarter) but not as good as expected. This might temper any hopes that the Japanese economy is on it's way to a full-blown recovery and weigh-in on the Yen.

June Trade # 30 - BUY EUR/USD

June 29, 2009 4:12 pm (Manila)

Trade is out at +10 pips/lot for a total of +40 pips.

I'm taking it out as I will be unable to monitor this trade for the next couple of hours. I do not feel comfortable leaving the trade open when I am doing something else, unless it's a long-tem trade.

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June 29, 2009 3:15 pm (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4016 (Just 4 lots)
STOP - 1.3966
Limit - 1.4046

At 5:00 pm (Manila) today, Eurozone Consumer Confidence data comes out which should show a number bullish for the Euro. Consumers are a major part of GDP, the measure of economic growth. Bullish consumer sentiment is good for a currency as traders anticipate that demand for that country's (or region's) currency will be high in the coming months (Consumer Confidence is forward-looking).

On the technical side, the pair has been trending down all day but the 2pm horly candle finished as a hammer, indicating that selling for the pair may have ended. Also, this hammer coincides with the lower bollinger band and around 61.8% of a fibonacci retracement drawn from 6/25 2200 hrs to 6/27 0000 hrs.

Game Plan for Week 27

The US dollar edged lower against every major currency except the Canadian dollar last week. Although I wrote that friday's session would be light, a surprise came as the Chinese renewed their challenge to the USD's status as world reserve currency.

This week, a number of major econmic announcements are due which would certainly give the market much volatility nnot seen in recent weeks.

Here's my daily game plan for week 27.

MONDAY, JUNE 29

BUY NZD/USD

At 6:45 am (Manila), New Zealand's Trade Balance data comes out. Expected to be better than previous, it should be bullish for the Kiwi.

BUY EUR/USD

At 5:00 pm (Manila), Eurozone consumer confidence data comes out, expected to be slightly better than previous. This should be bullish for the Euro.

TUESDAY, JUNE 30

I'm not trading on this day.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 1

BUY or SELL USD/JPY based on the all-important Tankan Indices. Disappointment could send the pair upward. In-line or better than expectation should be positive for the Yen.

BUY GBP/USD

At 4:30 pm, UK Manufacturing PMI will come out with number expected to be bullish for the Pound.

BUY EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD

In the evening, a slew of US economic announcements come out. I am betting that better numbers concerning the US economy will make investors jump out o the low-yielding USD into the better-yielding high-beta currencies. Will watch price action on the daily and hourly charts and enter on setups.

THURSDAY, JULY 2

Will watch price action on the daily and hourly charts and scalp some pips. On this day, Euro Interest rate decision is due. Also, US Non-Farm Employment data comes out. Last month, US non-farm payrolls surprised the market. I do not expect such a surprise this time and so, with a combination of these two, I am more biased toward going LONG EUR/USD.

I will also be watching price action on the following pairs: GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD and go LONG in case setups present themselves.

FRIDAY, JULY 3

US holiday. Will not trade. I expect light trading on this day.

Ending Week 26

I'm closing out the week (and the month). US economic announcements tonight are expected to come out mixed. This might cause uncertainty in today's trading. As such, I am staying on the sidelines.

This week I am up +324 pips and +2,592 pips for the month. 'Fantastic!' is my word for it.

Next week looks interesting with a number of major economic announcments up that could cause volatility in the FX market. These include Japan's Tankan Manufacturing Index (Wed), Euro Interest Rate (Thursday) and US Non-Farm Payrolls (Thu).

June Trade # 29 - BUY EUR/USD

June 25, 2009 11:52 am (Manila)

Trade is out at +24 pips/lot for a total of +144 pips. I decided to exit the trade as I will be unable to monitor this trade to spend time with my son who's celebrating his 2nd birthday today. Still, it was a great trade as I was able to gross over a hundred pips for the 2nd time (2 out of 3 trades) this week.

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June 25, 2009 8:23 am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.3946
Stop - 1.3876
Limit 1 - 1.3976
Limit 2 - 1.4007

Fundamental Reason: At 5:00 pm (Manila) today, Eurozone m/m Industrial Production Orders will come out. Expectation is that it will be flat (0.0% increase vs. previous contraction of -0.8%). This should be bullish for the Euro. As one of the largest industrial producing regions of the world, this data will matter for the Euro. Though relatively flat, it might mean that the pace of contraction in the Eurozone's economy is decelerating - raising optimism for growth in the coming months.

This is a leading indicator of production. Rising purchase orders signals that manufacturers will increase activity as they fill the orders. The effect will then trickle on to industries directly affected by Industrial Production - suppliers and contractors, for example.

SNB gives FX Market another jolt

The SNB (Swiss National Bank) gave the Forex market another 300-pip jolt (USD/CHF) today. The message to traders: "This is the way to test a Central Bank's resolve". When trader's sent the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF to the floor yesterday (1.0630 for the USD/CHF and 1.5011 for the EUR/CHF), the SNB intervened massively, selling off Swiss Francs and buying Euros and greenbacks, reminiscent of their March action.

There it goes. Despite the SNB's repeated statements that they do not have established levels where they want the Franc to stay, their actions just did not reflect that.

If I had been awake last night, I would have caught this steamroller from the get go.

Lesson learned here: Watch those levels on the Swiss Franc pairs and if they go anywhere near these lows, get ready to go LONG.

USD/CHF Hourly Chart (as of 6-25-2009)

June Trade # 28 - BUY GBP/USD

June 24, 2009 3:20 pm (Manila)

I'm a bit cautious on this trade as it's my first trade involving six (6) lots. Trade is out at +20 pips/lot for a total of +120 pips.

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June 24, 2009 2:30 pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6500 (6 lots)
Stop - 1.6480
Limit - 1.6520

Banking on broad dollar weakness and risk appetite. On the daily chart, this pair rallied yesterday and may continue its upside today. On the hourly chart, the pair took off after ranging for the past 12 hours.

June Trade # 27 - BUY USD/JPY

June 24, 2009 2:54 pm (Manila)

2nd half is out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +60 pips

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June 24, 2009 1:20 pm (Manila)

Limit 1 has been hit at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips.

Trade has been made risk-free now by moving 2nd half stops to breakeven.


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June 24, 2009 8:02 am (Manila)

BUY USD/JPY @ 95.35
Stop - 94.77
Limit 1 - 95.65
Limit 2 - 96.15

At 7:50 this morning, Japanese Trade Balance came out better than expected. I expect this data to push the Japanese Yen lower against the USD as investors jump to the higher yield of the greenback in the background of improving economic climate on the Japanese islands.

Breakeven Week 25

I'm ending the week at almost breakeven, gaining only +14 pips. Tough week characterized by the dollar being alternated to bull and bear. And it takes a lot to catch both. Think about catching a 2-trillion-dollar bull or a 2-trillion-dollar bear!

The breakout on the EUR/USD I wrote previously did not materialize despite the German PPI printing better than expected. I am watching out for this breakout next week.

Hopefully, next week (Week 26) will be more profitable. I am now on three consecutive weeks in positive territory. Yahoo!!!

I will also up the ante on my trades. Starting next week, I will be trading 6 lots at a time. I'm still contemplating on dividing my trades into halves of thirds. Let's see monday.

Greater profit opportunities but riskier.

Game Plan for June 19

Trading on the dollar pairs has been dancing along narrow ranges all morning. Last night, when positive data from US Unemplyment and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index came out, the dollar sold off on sentiment that the US recession is nearing its end. However, at around 1:30am today, investors and traders ran towards the dollar as news about some Italian banks under review and possible downgrade by Moody's.

The EUR/USD also hit a wall on 1.40 which seems to be a very strong resistance.

EUR/USD

On the daily chart, this pair looks like a tiny dodgie primed for a breakout. Question is, which way?

So, for today, I will be placing a couple of 'ambush' entry order positions at 1.3930 (for a LONG position) and 1.3871 (for a SHORT position).

The only fundamental event for today is the German PPI due this afternoon which is expected to be bullish for the EURO. This could be the catalyst that will give this pair an upward kick.

However, prevailing problems on the European banking sector still casts a shadow over the Eurozone. Any further negative news concerning this will definitely cause a flight to the safety of the dollar.

June Trade # 26 - BUY NZD/USD

Limit is hit at +30 pips/lot for a total of +120 pips.


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June 18, 2009 2:08 pm (Manila)

BUY NZD/USD @ 0.6331
Stop - 0.6280
Limit - 0.6361

At about 10:00 pm tonight (Manila), US Unemployment Claims data is expected to come out and cause a sell-off in the dollar.

June Trade # 25 - BUY AUD/USD

June 18, 2009 3:04 pm (Manila)

Limit was just hit at +30 pips/lot for a total of +120 pips.

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June 18, 2009 2:07 pm (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD @ 0.7949
Stop - 0.7900
Limit - 0.7979

At about 10:00 pm tonight (Manila), US Unemployment Claims data is expected to come out with better numbers than previous. This may cause a sell-off in the dollar.

June Trade # 24 - BUY GBP/USD

June 18, 2009 2:49 pm (Manila)

Second half is out at +49 pips/lot for a total +98 pips.

Summary:

1st half: +60 pips
2nd half: +98 pips

Total: +158 pips

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June 18, 2009 2:49 pm (Manila)

First half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total +60 pips. Moving stops of second half to breakeven to make this trade risk-free.

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June 18, 2009 2:05 pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6385
Stop - 1.6333
Limit 1 - 1.6415
Limit 2 - 1.6436

At about 10:00 pm tonight (Manila), US Unemployment Claims data is expected to come out and cause a sell-off in the dollar.

June Trade # 23 - BUY GBP/USD

June 17, 2009 3:40 pm (Manila)

Second half of the trade got stopped-out at breakeven.

Summary:

1st half: +60 pips
2nd half: 0 pips
Total: +60 pips

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June 17, 2009 1:35 pm (Manila)

First half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips.

Trade is now risk-free as second half stops are moved to breakeven.

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June 17, 2009 1:10 pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6412
Stop - 1.6341
Limit 1 - 1.6442
Limit 2 - 1.6495

AT 4:30 pm today, the latest Bank of England Meeting Minutes will come out. It is expected to be bullish for the Pound as it may warn of inflation rising in the British Isles.

June Trade # 22 - BUY USD/CAD

June 16, 2009 9:58 (Manila)

2nd half is out at breakeven. Too bad. I will look to re-enter when a new opportunity presents itself.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +60 pips

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June 16, 2009 9:37 am (Manila)

1st half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips. Moved stops of second half to breakeven. Trade is now risk-free.

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June 16, 2009 7:45 am (Manila)

BUY USD/CAD @ 1.1338
Stop - 1.1256
Limit 1 - 1.1368
Limit 2 - 1.1471

I believe that risk aversion sentiment in favor of the dollar is still strong. Oil has met strong resistance at $72/barrel and is barely holding on to $70. As bad news (Empire State Mfg and TIC Long-Term Purchases) struck last night, investors now question whether the current price can be sustained in the present environment --- the IMF and G8 Financial Ministers said that recovery is still not here and the situation remains volatile.

June Trade # 21 - SELL GBP/USD

June 16, 2009 8:30 am (Manila)

Both halves are out on strong dollar rally.

Summary for this trade:

1st half: +60 pips
2nd half: +132 pips

Total: +192 pips

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June 16, 2009 7:05 am (Manila)

SELL GBP/USD @ 1.6292
Stop - 1.6353
Limit 1 - 1.6262
Limit 2 - 1.6226

This afternoon, 4:30 pm, UK CPI data comes out which is expected to print out bearish for the Pound. Plus, the weekends comments by the CIB and the G8 Meeting will continue to reverberate and batter this pair down.

June Trade # 20 - BUY USD/CHF

June 17, 2009 1:35 pm (Manila)

Unfortunately, trade got stopped out at -68 pips/lot for a total of -272 pips.

Sometime noon yesterday, news came out about Russian President Mevedev's comments about the need for more reserve currencies outside the USD. This brought volatility into the market and made investors dump dollars as this is perceived as a threat to the greenback's uncontested reserve currency status.

As the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations hold their summit, currency traders will hold their breath and opt to steer clear of anything that has USD sign in it and make it weaker against the major currencies.

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June 16,2009 7:00am (Manila)

BUY USD/CHF @ 1.0928
STOP - 1.0860
Limit 1 - 1.0958
Limit 2 - 1.1046

At 3:15 pm today (Manila), Swiss Industrial Production data comes out which is expected to be significantly down from previous quarter. This should be bearish for the Franc.

June Trade # 19 - BUY NZD/USD

June 15, 2009 5:23 pm (Manila)

Unfortunately, trade did not go according to plan and was stopped-out at -38 pips/lot for a total of -152 pips.

A 'pump-fake' on that hammer.

This day's lessons:

- Befriend the trend.
- Take note of the pair's position on the bollinger bands.

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June 15, 2009 3:10 pm (Manila)

BUY NZD/USD @ 0.6363
STOP - 0.6325
Limit 1 - 0.6393
Limit 2 - 0.6433

Trading on pure technicals. The pair has been trending down for the better part of the day. A hammer formed on the hourly chart, conciding with the lower bollinger band and a 50% fibonacci retracement level. Time for the NZD to fight back!

Let's see how this turns out.

June Trade # 18 - BUY AUD/USD

June 15, 2009 5:24 pm (Manila)

Unfortunately trade got stopped-out at -40 pips/lot for a total of -160 pips.

That hammer 'pump-fake' got me.


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June 15, 2009 3:10 pm (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD @ 1.8042
STOP - 0.8002
Limit 1 - 0.8072
Limit 2 - 0.8120

Trading on pure technicals. The pair has been trending down the better part of the day. A hammer formed on the hourly chart, coinciding with the lower bollinger band.

Let's see how this develops.

Swiss Franc looks interesting this week

The dollar, as I write this, I strengthening against a basket of currencies, including the Euro, Pound, Yen, CAD, AUD, NZD and CHF. Oopss, that's against everybody!

Looks like it will consolidate for the early part of this week. I just learned that with a -116-pip loss earlier that started-off my trading week.

One currency that caught my attention is the Swiss Franc. Let's take a look at what's up for this currency:

PPI m/m this afternoon - expected to be up 0.1% vs previous month's -0.2%. It could move the dollar-swiss pair higher if it prints out grimmer than expected or kick it down if it comes out better.

Industrial Production tomorrow - expected to drop by -11.7% from the previous quarter. Yep, you read it right... a whopping 11.7% drop. Whenever you get industrial production down that big, it's bound to ripple into other parts of the economy --- unemployment, inflation, etc - ultimately leading to impact on that country's currency.

I'm not really sure if this has been baked-in on the current pricing of the pair but if it does print-out like the disaster it's expected to be, then the USD/CHF pair will definitely be shaken. So, I'm keeping a close eye on this tomorrow. Expect heavy movement to start when the Europeans wake-up around 2pm, Manila.

June Trade # 17 - BUY GBP/USD

June 15, 2009 1:44 pm (Manila)

Trade is out at -29 pips/lot for a total of -116 pips.

I'm cutting my losses and will look to re-enter when the opportunity arises.

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June 15, 2009 10:56 am (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6387

STOP – 1.6339

Limit 1 – 1.6407

Limit 2 – 1.6527

At 8:30 pm today (Manila), US Empire State Manufacturing Index comes out which should be bearish for the dollar.

Just gunning for 20-40 pips.

Featured Chart (EUR/USD Daily June 13)

I'm getting the hang of using this free blogger. Here's my featured chart for the day.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (June 13)

Pair just bounced off a weekly low and is currently 'walking' the 20-day MVA. Pair retraced last friday due to profit -taking and disappointing Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.
The pair could actually take-off from this point enroute to resistance at 1.4338 if fundamentals support. Hence, I am "BUY-biased" for this pair this week.

If disappointing fundamental data comes out, pair could break through 20-day MVA and test resistance near 1.3781 (38.2% fibonacci) or 1.3609 (50% fibonacci which also coincides with lower bollinger band). I would look for setups (bounce) on these levels and the 20-day MVA before going LONG.

Game Plan for Week 25 (June 15-19)

I am applying a new format for my weekly forecasts. The table below shows, in a nutshell, the potential strategies for each pair. Daily game plans will be posted.

Pair	Bias For The Week	Strategy
EUR/USD	UP	BUY – wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts.
GBP/USD	UP	BUY –wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
USD/JPY	UP	BUY –wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
USD/CAD	Down	SELL - wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
AUD/USD	UP	BUY –wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
NZD/USD	UP	BUY –wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
EUR/CHF	UP	BUY –wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
USD/CHF	Down	SELL - wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts

Week 24 (June 8-12) Summary

The constellations aligned this week as a number of good setups formed on my pet pairs and bouyed by several good news from the Eurozone and North America.

The week ended sideways though, reason for me to stay on the sidelines last Thursday and Friday.

June Trade # 10 - SELL EUR/USD (+ 60 pips)
USD/JPY LT Trade 2nd Half (+615 pips)
June Trade # 11 - BUY EUR/USD (+ 60 pips)
June Trade # 12 - BUY GBP/USD (+ 60 pips)
June Trade # 13 - SELL USD/CAD (+212 pips)
June Trade # 14 - BUY GBP/USD (+170 pips)
June Trade # 15 - SELL USD/CAD (+216 pips)
June Trade # 16 - BUY USD/JPY ( 0 pips)

Total +1,393 pips

What a week! i am looking forward to another equally-productive (or even better) trading week for Week 25.

WHO declares AH1N1 Pandemic

Just read right now that the WHO raised their pandemic alert to Level 6 on the A(H1N1) virus. My first reaction was, "What the hell!!! I am entered in a trade on the USD/JPY!". At first, I wanted to pullout the trade since it was doing breakeven. But the reader in me continued through the article (read here) and got my sigh of relief.

The World Health Organization (WHO) did declare it at level 6 (the highest pandemic alert level) meaning this thing (the virus) has spread across the planet. They did stress, though, that raising the alert level does not mean that a whole lot of people are suddenly gonna drop dead on the street nor the number of cases will shoot off the roof. No border closure nor trade and travel restiction recommneded. Hurray! This means we traders can continue doing our thing of trading and making money.

Alert level 6 means that we gotta a wide-open eye on this virus.

Trading is not affected by this alert... for now.

June Trade # 16 - BUY USD/JPY

June 12, 2009 3:05 pm (Manila)

Took the pair out at breakeven. A 'shooting star' just formed on the hourly chart. I am allergic to shooting stars when I am going LONG. For me, it's a sign of bad things to come for this pair. The pair appears to head for consolidation.

I am calling it a day, pack my bags ad count my gains for the week.

It was a spectacular week of trading!

=================================================

June 12, 2009 1:10 pm (Manila)

BUY USD/JPY @ 97.92
STOP - 97.17
Limit 1 - 98.22
Limit 2 - 98.84

Fundamental Reason: At about 9:55 pm (Manila) today, the University of Michigan Consumner Sentiment data will come out which should be better than previous and better than expected. This whould be bullish for the greenback. Investors holding Yen will dump the lower-yielding Yen in favor of the slightly-higher-yielding dollar.

Technical Reason: On the daily chart, the pair went sideways the past few days after a relentless rally last week. The pair could resume its upward movement now that the pair is no longer overbought. On the hourly chart, the pair broke through the 20-hour MVA with the closed stick (about 12nn today). Normally, when this happens after coming from the lower bollinger band, the pair goes on all the way to the upper bollinger band.

Game Plan for June 12

I woke up a late today and was out on vacation yesterday. It looks like the rally against the dollar continued yesterday. However, today in Asian trading, the rally was somewhat muted. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs looked ready for consolidation.

Here are the trade opportunities I am seeing for today:

EUR/USD

I am long-term-bearish for the dollar and would continue to bet on a rise on the EUR/USD. This is the hourly chart for the EUR/USD.

Fundamental: I believe in the long-term that this pair would continue to rise. At 5pm today (Manila) Eurozone Industrial Production data will come out which should show better news anf be positive for the Euro.

Technical: Pair is retracing and is currently testing the 20-period MVA on the hourly. As with my previous posts this week, this pair bounced on the 20-day MVA and is headed north.

Strategy: Go LONG if pair fails to break through 20-hour MVA or on any support levels 1.4059, 1.4031 or 1.3992.

AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY are currently retracing in the hourly charts. I expect that once a bounce happens, these pairs will continue their upward trajectories.

USD/CAD is also currently reatracing in the hourly chart. I will look for a failure near the 20-hour MVA then go SHORT.

June Trade # 15 - SELL USD/CAD

June 10, 2009 4:14 pm (Manila)

2nd half is out at +78 pips/lot for a total of 156 pips. Took out the second half when the pair started to bang on the lower band of the bollinger band.

Summary for this trade:


1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: +156 pips

Total: +216 pips

Yahoo! Another great trade!

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June 10, 2009 1:57 pm (Manila)

Limit 2 is hit at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips. Trade is now risk-free as 2nd half stops are moved to breakeven.

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June 10, 2009 8:11am (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 1.1041
Stop - 1.1099
Limit 1 - 1.1011
Limit 2 - 1.0936

Fundamental:- At 8:30 pm (Manila) today, Canadian Trade Balance will come out which I expect to be positive for the CAD.

Technical: Pair failed off 1.1063 (20-period MVA on the hourly chart and 38.2% fibonacci).

For further details, see my post on GAMEPLAN for June 10.

USD/JPY Long-Term Trade is out!

The USD/JPY Long-Term trade that started last June 2nd is out today. The pair took a nose-dive last night and appears that will take time to recover. As such, I manually removed the trades, still with gains totalling 1,401 pips for the whole trade.

For details, click HERE.

Gameplan for June 10th

June 10, 2009 6:30 am (Manila)

Yesterday, I was right on the money about EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD. Today, I am still seeing some promising opportunities on the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

GBP/USD

Trend for today: UP (the trend is my friend, so I will not go against it)

Fundamental:

At about 4:30 pm (Manila) this afternoon, UK month-on-month Manufacturing Production will come out expected to be better than previous --- good for the Pound. Also, the Gordon Brown saga appears to have mellowed down allowing the Sterling to resume significant upward momentum yesterday.

Technical:

- Pair bounced on the daily chart two days ago and looks to confirm an upward trend.
- This coincides with 20-day MVA and 38.2% Fibonacci drwan from April 22 - June 3rd.
- RSI in high 60s but not yet overbought.
- MACD and Slow Stochastics signalling to go LONG.
- Resistance seen at 1.6359 and then 1.6433.

Strategy:
- Go LONG, look for setups in the hourly chart.
- Pair could go down this morning up to 1.6250 where 20-period MVA and 38.2% Fibonacci on the hourly charts are. If bounce is seen on these levels, I may enter a LONG trade.

EUR/USD

Trend for the day: UP

Fundamental:

At 2:45 pm (Manila) today, French Industrial Production will come out, expected to be bullish for the Euro.

Technical:

- On the daily chart, pair bounced off 1.3800, confirmed by trendlines, 20-day MVA and 38.2% Fibonacci (drawn from April 22 - June 3).
- RSI suggests room for upwar trend.
- MACD and Slow Stochs signal to go LONG.

Strategy:
- Go LONG, look for setup on the hourly chart.
- Pair currently sideways and could retrace to 1.4005 (38.2% Fibo) or 1.3977 (50% Fibo). If bounce is seen on these levels, I may enter a LONG Trade.

USD/CAD

Trend: DOWN

Fundamental:
- At 8:30 pm (Manila) today, Canadian Trade Balance will come out which I expect to be positive for the CAD.

Technical:
- Pair saw a failure off 1.1285 on the daily chart, coninciding with trendlines, 20-day MVA and 50% fibonacci (drawn May 18-June 3).
- RSI still in neutral zone suggesting pair could go anywhere.
- MACD and Slow Stochs suggest to go SHORT.

Strategy:
- Go SHORT, look for setups on the hourly chart.
- Pair currently retracing and could find support at 1.1063, right where 38.2% fibo on the hourly chart and 20-period MVA is. If failure is seen on this level, I may enter SHORT.


AUD/USD

Trend for the day: UP

Fundamentals:
- At 9:30 am (Manila) today, Australian Home Loans data comes out which might be positive for the AUD.

Technical:
- A bounce is seen on the daily chart at 0.7859. This coincides with trendlines, 20-day MVA and 50% fibonacci (drawn May 18-Jun 3).
- RSI, MACD and SLow Stochs suggest room for upward trend.

Strategy:
- Go LONG. Wait for setup on the hourly chart or if Australian Home Loans' data comes out positive.
- Pair in retracement/sideways now and could drop to 0.7959 as support (38.2% fibonacci). Wait for bounce on this level.

June Trade # 14 - BUY GBP/USD

June 29, 2009 3:00 pm (Manila)

2nd half is out at +55 pips/lot for a total of +110 pips.

Summary for this trade:

1st half: + 60 pips
2nd half: +110 pips

Total: +170 pips

Whew!

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June 29, 2009 2:40 pm (Manila)

1st half is out for a total of +60 pips (+30 pips/lot).

Trade is now risk free as 2nd half stops are moved to breakeven.

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June 29, 2009 1:30 pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6037
STOP - 1.5976
Limit 1 - 1.6067
Limit 2 - 1.6092

Pair has retraced this morning but has bounced off the 20-period MVA on the hourly chart. This point also coincides with trend lines and a fibonacci level. The impact of this morning's RICS Housing data in the UK should affect the opening of the Eurozone today.

June Trade # 13 - SELL USD/CAD

June 29, 2009 3:05 pm (Manila)

2nd half is out at +76 pips/lot for a total of +152 pips.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: + 60 pips
2nd Half: +152 pips

Total: +212 pips

Wonderful!

===============================================

June 29, 2009 2:35 pm (Manila)

1st half is out moments agos at total of +60 pips (30 pips/lot).

Trade now risk-free as 2nd half stops are moved to breakeven.


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June 29, 2009 1:35 pm (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 1.1176
STOP - 1.1221
Limit 1 - 1.1146
Limit 2 - 1.1100

Please see my reasons for this trade on my commentary about June 9, 2009 Opportunities.

June Trade # 12 - BUY GBP/USD

June 9, 2009 8:18am (Manila)

2nd half is out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st half: + 60 pips
2nd half: 0 pips

Total: +60 pips

Great!! I will be looking to re-enter when opportunities arise.

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June 9,2009 8:00 am (Manila)

Limit 1 is hit at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips. Moving stops of 2nd half to breakeven. Trade now risk-free.

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June 9, 2009 7:05 am (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6058
STOP - 1.5974
Limit 1 - 1.6088
Limit 2 - 1.6163

At 7:01am today, UK RICS House Price Balance came out beating expectations by wide margin. Increased House Prices contribute to inflation which is good for a currency.

On the technical side, see my commentary about opportunites today, June 9th.

June Trade # 11 - BUY EUR/USD

June 9, 2009 5:20 pm (Manila)

2nd half of this trade just got out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +60 pips

Wonderful trade still!

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June 9, 2009 3:10 pm (Manila)

1st half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips.

Trade is now risk-free as 2nd half stops are moved to breakeven.

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June 9, 2009 7:10 am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.3912
STOP - 1.3825
Limit 1 - 1.3942
Limit 2 - 1.3984

AT about 2pm and 2:45pm this afternoon, German and French Trade balances are due to come out with better numbers than previous. These two countries comprise more than 50% of the Eurozone's economy and thus would have significant impact on the Euro.

On the technical side, a hammer on the dailies, pair bounced off trendline, 61.8% fibonacci level and 20-day MVA (see my previous post about opportunities for today, June 9th)

June 9, 2009 Opportunities

June 9, 2009 6:19 am (Manila)

I'm seeing some good opportunities forming-up today on these pairs:

EUR/USD

Fundamental: German and French Trade balances are due to come out this afternoon, both expected to be better than previous month. Good for the Euro.

Technical:
- A hammer formed on the daily chart yesterday.
- Pair bounced-off a trendline and 61.8% fibonacci (April 22-June 8)
- Pair bounced off 20-day MVA

Strategy: Go LONG, wait for setup on the hourly chart.


GBP/USD

Fundamental: RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) House Price Balance data comes out at 7am today, expected to be less negative than previous. Good for the Pound.

Technical:
- Morning star formation the past three days, suggesting more buying momentum.
- Pair bounced of a trendline and 38.2% fibonacci (April 22- June 8)
- Pair bounced off 20-day MVA

Strategy: Go LONG. Buy upon RICS announcement or wait for setup on the hourly chart.


USD/CAD

Fundamental: Oil prices comtinue to rise. Good for the CAD.

Technical:
- Shooting star formation on the daily chart yesterday.
- Failure off trendline and 50% fibonacci (May 18-June 8)
- Failure off 20-day MVA

Strategy: Go SHORT upon setup on the hourly chart.

That's my forecast for today. Let's see what happens.

Update of USD/JPY Long-Term Trade

June 10, 2009 6:15 am (Manila)

Trade is out at +165, +190 and +130 for the three sets of lots. Pair took a downward turn last night and appeared to be heading lower.

Total of +615 pips for this half:

Summary for this LT Trade:

1st Half: +786 pips
2nd Half: +615 pips

Total: +1,401 pips

==========================================

June 8, 2009 2:50 pm (Manila)

Bumping this to the top of the page.

The pair has been in retracement mode all day. The three sets I have are currently doing +210, +235 and +175.

Moving all stops to breakeven. All trades are now RISK-FREE!

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June 6, 2009 2:29 pm (Manila)

While I was sound asleep last night, US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised the market - coming out significantly less negative than expected.As a result, the dollar rallied across the board, including against the Yen.

1st Limits of my three sets were all ht last night @ +227, +211 and +174 (+348 for 2 lots of third set), respectively.

All in all, the first halves gave me a total of +786 pips. What a wonderful way to end the week!======================================================

June 5, 2009 6:00 pm (Manila)

This trade is doing pretty well and I am convinced of continued upward movement ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls announcement.I sent in a third set of LONGs. This is even bigger than the first two as each halves contain 2 lots each.

Details as follows:

BUY USD/JPY @ 96.76
STOP - 93.00
Limit 1 - 98.50 (+174)
Limit 2 - 101.00 (+424)

================================================
June 5, 2009 3:30 pm (Manila)

Three days into this long-term trade and it finally broke through into positive territory, currently up +50 pips.

Yesterday, I reigned-in another set of LONGs for this pair and that set is currently doing +20 pips.

Details of 2nd set:

BUY USD/JPY @ 96.39
STOP - 93.00
Limit 1 - 98.50 (+211)
Limit 2 - 101.00 (+461)

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June 2, 2009 3:11 pm (Manila)

BUY USD/JPY @ 96.23
STOP - 93.00
Limit 1 - 98.50 (+227)
Limit 2 - 101.00 (+477)

A flurry of good economic news coming out of Japan. With this, investors should seek better yields from other, higher-yielding, riskier assets (such as currencies with higher interest rates).The pair bounced on the weeky chart which gave me the signal to entr into this long-term trade.

June Trade # 10 - SELL EUR/USD

June 8, 2009 2:30 pm (Manila)

Trade is out at +15 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips!

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June 8, 2009 2:00 pm (Manila)

SELL EUR/USD @ 1.3964
STOP - 1.4000
Limit 1 - 1.3949
Limit 2 - 1.3949

Trading four (4) lots.

Saw that the pair failed to penetrate 1.3990 and is trending down. Will scalp for a few pips as indicators suggest a downtrend.