April Trade # 3 - BUY AUD/USD

10:20am (Manila)

Took trade out at +14 pips/lot for total of +28 pips. I need to pack early for a well-deserved vacation. For me, at least 25 pips a day total gain is fair. If I see strong momentum, i'll leave to go as high as it can. But when I see momentum slowing down, I exit.

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8:35am (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD @ 0.7010
STOP @ 0.6980
Limit 1 @ 0.7030
Limit 2 @ 0.7050

Australian Trade Balance came out better than expected (2.11B vs 0.7B expectation). With this, I believe that the AUD will rise against the USD.

April Trade # 2 - SELL GBP/USD

I exited the first half with +25 pips ( I had to leave my pc to do other stuff) then moved the 2nd half stop to breakeven. The pair quickly reversed in the middle of the day and my 2nd half got stopped out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +25 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: 25 pips

Closing 1/2 of the trade and moving to breakeven stops for 2nd half when I need to do some other things is a "keep-my-ass-secured strategy.

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This is the right trade for today.

SELL GBP/USD @ 1.4299
STOP @ 1.4368
LIMIT 1 @ 1.4269
LIMIT 2 @ 1.4239

UK Mfg PMI comes out tonight (expected to have results that will be bearish for the Pound).
US ADP Non-Farm Employement Delta comes out tonight (expected to have results that will be bullish for the greeback).

April Trade # 1 - BUY USD/JPY

7:57am (Manila)

That was quick!

Both halfs are out:

1st Half: +30 pips
2nd Half: +40 pips

Total: +70 pips


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7:30am (Manila)

BUY USD/JPY @ 99.05
STOP @ 98.62
LIMIT 1 @ 99.35
LIMIT 2 @ 99.45

US ADB non-Farm payroll comes out tonight which could come out less negative than previous which could be bullish for the USD.

JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index comes out this morning which could come out bearish for the JPY.

March Live Trade # 5 - BUY GBP/USD

8:28pm (Manila)

I admit this trade was a mistake trade. I am exiting to cut my losses.

Trade exited with a total of -102 pips.

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BUY GBP/USD @ 1.4368
STOP @ 1.4214
LIMIT 1 @ 1.4400
LIMIT 2 @ 1.44868

I actually had this on autopilot before I hit the sack last night. A slew of weak US economic data came out which could contribute to a rise in this pair today.

That could change however, when UK PMI and US ADB Non-Farm payroll data comes out. However, I believe that this pair will still go up before it goes down.

March Live Trade # 4 - BUY EUR/USD

4:39pm (Manila)

Packing my bags and going home. I'm exiting my positions at +11 pips/lot.

Summary for this trade:

1st Lot: +11 pips
2nd Lot: +11 pips

Total: +22 pips

I am exiting the trade due to the German unemployment announcement which is more negative than expected. Despite this, the EUR/USD pair continued a steady upward trend today. However, I think this announcement will cast a gloomy shadow over the pair and would temper any further upward movement.

All eyes now on the ECB when it announces its interest rate decision this coming thursday.

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11:40am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.3267
STOP @ 1.3094
LIMIT 1 @ 1.3297
LIMIT 2 @ 1.3339

Pair breaks 1.3257. Pair could rise up and go all the way to 100-day SMA around 1.3407.

March Live Trade # 3 - BUY GBP/USD

Summary for this trade:

1st Lot - +30 pips
2nd Lot - +48 pips

Total - +78 pips



11:36am (Manila)

2nd lot is out with at +48 pips.

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10:16am (Manila)

1st Lot is out at +30 pips.

Moving 2nd lot Stop to breakeven.

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BUY GBP/USD @ 1.4286
STOP @ 1.4218
LIMIT 1 @ 1.4317
LIMIT 2 @ 1.4340

Technical setup formed up for a BUY position. Looking to cash-in on continued retracement which could continue up to 1.4340.

March Live Trade # 2 - SELL EUR/USD

2:38pm (Manila)

2nd half is out at breakeven.

Summary:

1st lot: +41 pips
2nd lot: 0 pip

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1:52pm (Manila)

1st half is out at +41 pips. Moving my 2nd half Stop to breakeven.

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12:20pm (Manila)

Trade is in just moments ago.

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With my analysis below (EUR/USD - March 30th), I mentioned that the pair could continue on its downward run this week.

Well, justa couple of hours ago,a double dodji formed on this pair around 1.3261. It could be a sign of a major move coming soon.

So, I placed this ENTRY STOP ORDER TO SELL @ 1.3234
STOP @ 1.3267
LIMIT 1 @ 1.3193
LIMIT 2 @ 1.3110.

Will update once this trade is in.

USD/CHF Analysis - March 30th

Daily Chart

Technical – Support seen at 1.1179 (50% Fibonacci, Trend and Horizontal lines)

Fundamental – No major economic announcement concerning CHF today but slew of economic announcements for the USD and CHF forthcoming.

Potential Strategy: BUY USD/CHF if pair breaks through 1.1637 (21.4% Fobonacci).

March Live Trade # 1 - LONG USD/JPY

Unfortunately, this trade got stopped-out at -46 pips/lot for a total of -92 pips.

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BUY USD/JPY @ 98.26
STOP @ 97.80
LIMIT 1 @ 98.40
LIMIT 2 @ 98.70

Reason: See my previous post re: Analysis March 30th - USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Analysis - March 30th

Daily Chart

Technical – Upward Trend. Support on 96.85 (Fibonacci 1, Simple Moving Average and Horizontal Line).

Fundamental – Just got the news that Japan’s Prelim Industrial Production M/M dropped -9.4% vs expectation of -9.1%. This is bad for the yen and coupled with the USD’s possible pullback continuation this week, this pair could move up this week.

Potential Strategy: BUY USD/JPY when setup appears.

Hourly Chart

Technical – Support seen at 97.66 – 97.85 (SMA, Fibo 1 and Fibo2).

GBP/USD Analysis - March 30th

Daily Chart

Technical – Upward Trend. Pair looks to be headed downward this week. Possible pullback to support at 50% Fibonacci 1 (1.4267).

Fundamental – A couple of econimic announccements concerning GBP today but both showing bullishness for the Pound. With the USD in for a possible continuation of its pullback this week, this pair is not a good trade today.

Technical – Pair is trending down. At Fibonacci 2, support appear to be at 21.4% (1.4283).

Potential Strategy – Keep an eye on this pair. Slew of economic announcements concerning GBP and USD coming tomorrow (March 31st).

EUR/USD Analysis - March 30th

Daily Chart –
Technical - Appears to be headed downward this week. Current support at 38.2% Fibonacci (1.3244).
Fundamental – A number of Eurozone announcements are due today, all of which are

bearish for the EUR.

With Fibonacci 2, pair appears to be showing support @ 21.4% (1.3287)
Potential Strategy: SELL EUR/USD if pair fails at 1.3287.

Let's see in a couple of hours how this pair will form up.

Forex Foundry is born!

From here on, I will be posting my technical and fundamental analyses of currency pairs I look forward to trade.