WEEK 22 - Ending the week bruised and battered

What a tough week. I got losses I dare not count. I probably will account my gains and losses --- maybe this sunday. I'm ending the week bruised and battered with losses but nevertheless it has been a wonderful learning experience.

The 2nd lot of my NZD/USD pair is still in the thick of the fight currently up at +170 pips with +80 pips protected.

The US Preliminary GDP data coming out tonight at around 8:30 will be telling on the future direction of the market for next week. If good news comes out, risk appetite will grip the market and a sell-off of the dollar is all but certain. If bad news comes out, this rally will stall. Anyway, I got 80 pips protected.

Looking forward for another trading week next week.

May Trade #16 - SELL GBP/USD

May 29, 2009 9:00 am (Manila)

Unfortunately, pair is out at -37 pips/lot for a total of -74 pips.

My trade was with a very tight stop. Will look for more opportunities to re-enter.

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May 29, 2009 7:16 am (Manila)

SELL GBP/USD @ 1.5925
STOP - 1.5962 (-37)
Limit 1 - 1.5895 (+30)
Limit 2 - 1.5855 (+60)

At about 7am today (Manila), UK Gfk Consumer Confidence survey came out slightly less than expected. This is a leading indicator of consumer spending which accounts for huge chunk of GDP. This, coupled with the pair's overbought level, I hope will bring this pair down.

Plus, a shooting star and a dodji formed on the daily charts the past two days, possible signals of an end to buying for this pair.

I knew there was something about gold that told me to jump out!

A few minutes ago, something unusual happened. About a half hour after I exited my trade, gold suddenly plummeted then rose back up. What's so unusual is that instead of a few dollars' drop, it swooped down to -0.1 before roaring back in to $ 946.8. The result, instead of seeing one nicely-looking candlestick, you get one long, thin stick --- like a needle.

I'll be posting screenshots soon. Could it be just a glitch or some major gold holder just dropped a bomb?

May Long Term Trade # 4 - LONG USD/CAD

May 29, 2009 12:00 mn (Manila)

Manually took the pair out at breakeven a few minutes ago. I guess the pair remains stubborn and will continue to head south with a slew of economic data from the US that just came out.

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May 28, 2009 6:12 pm (Manila)

Pair is currently doing around -60 pips/lot, effectively negating the gains of my other LT trade. However, I will hold on and hang tough on this trade as I believe the reversal that started yesterday has not lost steam.

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May 28, 2009 1:00 pm (Manila)

In have re-entered in the USD/CAD LONG trade. A hammer formed on the lower bollinger band yesterday and RSI, MACD and Slow Stochastics support a general upward movement. This will be a long-term trade running days, maybe weeks.

The CAD has been strengthening against the greenback for the past two months and I believe a reatracement is in the works.

Trade details:

LONG USD/CASD @ 1.1237
STOP - 1.1086
Limit 1 - 1.1361
Limit 2 - 1.1486

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May Long-Term Trade # 3 - LONG NZD/USD (In Progress)

June 1, 2009 4:30 pm (Manila)

All lots are out.

Trade Summary:

Lot 1 +159 pips
Lot 2 +329 pips
Lot 3 + 30 pips
Lot 4 + 73 pips

Total +591 pips

Whoah!

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June 1, 2009 3:00 pm (Manila)

Set 2 Limit 1 has been hit at +30 pips. Moving stops of this set to breakeven to make this portion risk-free.

Set 1 Lot 2 is now doing +300 pips. Moving stop to protect +200 pips.

This trade is turning out just splendid!

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June 1, 2009 9:55 am (Manila)

I'm sending-in another set of long for this pair.

BUY NZD/USD @ 0.6427
STOP - 0.6301
Set 2 Limit 1 - 0.6457
Set 2 Limit 2 - 0.6500

Big week ahead for the currency market. I'm beeting that this pair will gun for 65-66 cents this week.

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June 1, 2009 9:30 am (Manila)

Stop has been moved to protect +130 pips. Trade is currently doing +240 and there's still room for an upswing.

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May 30, 2009 8:37 am (Manila)

My second lot is doing pretty well and is now up +228 pips. Still +80 pips is protected. There is a possibility that ths pair might retrace when trading resumes next week. If that happens, I might bring in another set of longs when a bounce occurs after retracement.

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May 29, 2009 2:50 pm (Manila)

First lot is out at +159 pips. Moving stop of second lot to 0.6251 to protect +80 pips.

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May 28, 2009 6:00 pm (Manila)

Trade is currently up at +70 pips/lot. Moving stops to 0.6100 to reduce possible losses if anything happens overnight.

My two long-tern trades are taking very different directions. This one is taking the high road.

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May 28,2009 8:49 am (Manila)

I am in a Long-Term Trade again. Last week, I entered an LT on this same pair but was stopped-out with my second lot. I waited for some indicators to align and a bounce to happen. Pair is currently bouncing around 0.6170. I believe this pair still has a lot of room for an upward push.

Trade details:

LONG NZD/USD @ 0.6171
STOP - 0.6000
Limit 1 - 0.6330
Limit 2 - 0.6500

May Trade #15 - LONG GOLD

May 28, 2009 1:30 pm (Manila)

Gold is out @ $946.9 an ounce. There's something about this gold that I can't get my finger on. Oh well, I guess I'll wait for gold to drop to the $700-$800 area before buying back in.

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Bought Gold at $946.6 when it fell to this intra-day low. With a madman on the Korean peninsula testing a nuke, firing missiles and threatening to attack US and South Korean ships, I believe a specter of uncertainty has befallen the forex market. As always, need is there to be cautious on which currency pairs to trade. With this, a rush to safe-haven gold is possible.

A number of indicators (RSI, MACD, Slow Stochs) are suggesting that gold is poised for a rebound.

Let's see what happens.

May Trade #14 - BUY USD/CAD

May 28, 2009 6:41 am (Manila)

Both lots are out:

1st Lot : +15 pips
2nd Lot: +30 pips
Total: +45 pips

It seems that I am right about a reversal coming for this pair. A hammer formed on the daily chart but is retracing in the hourlies. I will re-enter when the opportunity arises.

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May 27, 2009 3:00 pm (Manila)

This pair has been going south since the second half of April. On the daily chart, Bollinger Band, RSI, MACD and RSI all indicate a possible reversal to the uptrend. Just this afternoon, the Saudi Arabian Oil Minister says there is no need for an OPEC production cut - a possible sign that at current supply and demand levels, oil price is primed to head for their target of $75. A $75 per barrel oil has in expected by traders for quite a while and as such, might already be factored-in for the CAD.

Hence, I am entering this position:

BUY USD/CAD @ 1.1138
STOP - 1.1080
Limit 1 - 1.1153
Limit 2 - 1.1168

Just scalping for small profits today. Will turn-in again for a longer-term position if a setup forms.

Canada is the largest oil supplier to the continental United States. Hence, any oil price fluctuation affects the CAD. As I've said, $75 has been expected and fcatored-in by investors so nothing new in the demand for CAD.

May Trade #13 - BUY USD/JPY

May 28, 2009 7:53 am (Manila)

After wandering for the last 12 hours, this pair finally broke through into positive territory. However, I am taking this pair out as recent events unfolded. With North Korea rattling its saber with a threat to attack US and South Korean ships, this pair could head down due to the uncertainty of the situation. Hence, I am preferring to stay on the sidelines.

I am taking out this this at a respectable +18 pips/lot for a total of +36 pips.

I will be keeping a sharp eye on this trade and look for opportunities to re-enter.


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May 27, 2009 11:20am (Manila)

Bought USD/JPY @ 95.42
STOP - 93.77
Limit 1 -96.58
Limit 2 - 99.59

On the daily chart, this pair has bounced off around 94.00. RSI indicate enough room for an upward push, MACD and Slow Stochastics both show signal to go LONG.

Plus, Japanese Trade Balance came out weaker than expected today, bearish for the Yen.

May Trade #12 - BUY EUR/USD

May 25, 2009 4:30 pm

Unfortunately, this trade got stopped-out at -45 pips/lot for a total of -180 pips.

The German IFO survey disappoints and North Korea's unexpected nuclear test failed to provide direction for the market. As such, I am staying in the sidelines for now.

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May 25, 2009 1:18 pm

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4012
STOP – 1.3965
Limit 1 – 1.4042
Limit 2 – 1.4072

At about 4pm today (Manila), German IFO survey data comes out. Most analysts expect this to be positive, another sign of optimism in the Eurozone. When the Europeans start to wake up, I expect this pair to shoot up.

May Trade # 11 - BUY USD/JPY

May 25, 2009 1:20 pm

After 15 mins, +11 pips/lot for a total of +22 pips.

Wonderful!

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May 25, 2009 1:05 pm

BUY USD/JPY @ 95.03
STOP – 94.73
Limit 1 – 95.33
Limit 2 – 96.63

Saw a bounce on the hourly charts. I see a bit of a strong momentum for this pair to go up. I don't expect to stay long.

After the dollar weakening last week, it appears that this pair has had enough and is poised for an upward out break. being cautious though as news just came out that North korea just tested a nuclear weapon.