Featured Chart (EUR/USD Daily June 13)

I'm getting the hang of using this free blogger. Here's my featured chart for the day.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (June 13)

Pair just bounced off a weekly low and is currently 'walking' the 20-day MVA. Pair retraced last friday due to profit -taking and disappointing Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.
The pair could actually take-off from this point enroute to resistance at 1.4338 if fundamentals support. Hence, I am "BUY-biased" for this pair this week.

If disappointing fundamental data comes out, pair could break through 20-day MVA and test resistance near 1.3781 (38.2% fibonacci) or 1.3609 (50% fibonacci which also coincides with lower bollinger band). I would look for setups (bounce) on these levels and the 20-day MVA before going LONG.

Game Plan for Week 25 (June 15-19)

I am applying a new format for my weekly forecasts. The table below shows, in a nutshell, the potential strategies for each pair. Daily game plans will be posted.

Pair	Bias For The Week	Strategy
EUR/USD	UP	BUY – wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts.
GBP/USD	UP	BUY –wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
USD/JPY	UP	BUY –wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
USD/CAD	Down	SELL - wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
AUD/USD	UP	BUY –wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
NZD/USD	UP	BUY –wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
EUR/CHF	UP	BUY –wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts
USD/CHF	Down	SELL - wait for setup on the daily and hourly charts

Week 24 (June 8-12) Summary

The constellations aligned this week as a number of good setups formed on my pet pairs and bouyed by several good news from the Eurozone and North America.

The week ended sideways though, reason for me to stay on the sidelines last Thursday and Friday.

June Trade # 10 - SELL EUR/USD (+ 60 pips)
USD/JPY LT Trade 2nd Half (+615 pips)
June Trade # 11 - BUY EUR/USD (+ 60 pips)
June Trade # 12 - BUY GBP/USD (+ 60 pips)
June Trade # 13 - SELL USD/CAD (+212 pips)
June Trade # 14 - BUY GBP/USD (+170 pips)
June Trade # 15 - SELL USD/CAD (+216 pips)
June Trade # 16 - BUY USD/JPY ( 0 pips)

Total +1,393 pips

What a week! i am looking forward to another equally-productive (or even better) trading week for Week 25.

WHO declares AH1N1 Pandemic

Just read right now that the WHO raised their pandemic alert to Level 6 on the A(H1N1) virus. My first reaction was, "What the hell!!! I am entered in a trade on the USD/JPY!". At first, I wanted to pullout the trade since it was doing breakeven. But the reader in me continued through the article (read here) and got my sigh of relief.

The World Health Organization (WHO) did declare it at level 6 (the highest pandemic alert level) meaning this thing (the virus) has spread across the planet. They did stress, though, that raising the alert level does not mean that a whole lot of people are suddenly gonna drop dead on the street nor the number of cases will shoot off the roof. No border closure nor trade and travel restiction recommneded. Hurray! This means we traders can continue doing our thing of trading and making money.

Alert level 6 means that we gotta a wide-open eye on this virus.

Trading is not affected by this alert... for now.

June Trade # 16 - BUY USD/JPY

June 12, 2009 3:05 pm (Manila)

Took the pair out at breakeven. A 'shooting star' just formed on the hourly chart. I am allergic to shooting stars when I am going LONG. For me, it's a sign of bad things to come for this pair. The pair appears to head for consolidation.

I am calling it a day, pack my bags ad count my gains for the week.

It was a spectacular week of trading!

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June 12, 2009 1:10 pm (Manila)

BUY USD/JPY @ 97.92
STOP - 97.17
Limit 1 - 98.22
Limit 2 - 98.84

Fundamental Reason: At about 9:55 pm (Manila) today, the University of Michigan Consumner Sentiment data will come out which should be better than previous and better than expected. This whould be bullish for the greenback. Investors holding Yen will dump the lower-yielding Yen in favor of the slightly-higher-yielding dollar.

Technical Reason: On the daily chart, the pair went sideways the past few days after a relentless rally last week. The pair could resume its upward movement now that the pair is no longer overbought. On the hourly chart, the pair broke through the 20-hour MVA with the closed stick (about 12nn today). Normally, when this happens after coming from the lower bollinger band, the pair goes on all the way to the upper bollinger band.

Game Plan for June 12

I woke up a late today and was out on vacation yesterday. It looks like the rally against the dollar continued yesterday. However, today in Asian trading, the rally was somewhat muted. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs looked ready for consolidation.

Here are the trade opportunities I am seeing for today:

EUR/USD

I am long-term-bearish for the dollar and would continue to bet on a rise on the EUR/USD. This is the hourly chart for the EUR/USD.

Fundamental: I believe in the long-term that this pair would continue to rise. At 5pm today (Manila) Eurozone Industrial Production data will come out which should show better news anf be positive for the Euro.

Technical: Pair is retracing and is currently testing the 20-period MVA on the hourly. As with my previous posts this week, this pair bounced on the 20-day MVA and is headed north.

Strategy: Go LONG if pair fails to break through 20-hour MVA or on any support levels 1.4059, 1.4031 or 1.3992.

AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY are currently retracing in the hourly charts. I expect that once a bounce happens, these pairs will continue their upward trajectories.

USD/CAD is also currently reatracing in the hourly chart. I will look for a failure near the 20-hour MVA then go SHORT.

June Trade # 15 - SELL USD/CAD

June 10, 2009 4:14 pm (Manila)

2nd half is out at +78 pips/lot for a total of 156 pips. Took out the second half when the pair started to bang on the lower band of the bollinger band.

Summary for this trade:


1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: +156 pips

Total: +216 pips

Yahoo! Another great trade!

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June 10, 2009 1:57 pm (Manila)

Limit 2 is hit at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips. Trade is now risk-free as 2nd half stops are moved to breakeven.

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June 10, 2009 8:11am (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 1.1041
Stop - 1.1099
Limit 1 - 1.1011
Limit 2 - 1.0936

Fundamental:- At 8:30 pm (Manila) today, Canadian Trade Balance will come out which I expect to be positive for the CAD.

Technical: Pair failed off 1.1063 (20-period MVA on the hourly chart and 38.2% fibonacci).

For further details, see my post on GAMEPLAN for June 10.

USD/JPY Long-Term Trade is out!

The USD/JPY Long-Term trade that started last June 2nd is out today. The pair took a nose-dive last night and appears that will take time to recover. As such, I manually removed the trades, still with gains totalling 1,401 pips for the whole trade.

For details, click HERE.

Gameplan for June 10th

June 10, 2009 6:30 am (Manila)

Yesterday, I was right on the money about EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD. Today, I am still seeing some promising opportunities on the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

GBP/USD

Trend for today: UP (the trend is my friend, so I will not go against it)

Fundamental:

At about 4:30 pm (Manila) this afternoon, UK month-on-month Manufacturing Production will come out expected to be better than previous --- good for the Pound. Also, the Gordon Brown saga appears to have mellowed down allowing the Sterling to resume significant upward momentum yesterday.

Technical:

- Pair bounced on the daily chart two days ago and looks to confirm an upward trend.
- This coincides with 20-day MVA and 38.2% Fibonacci drwan from April 22 - June 3rd.
- RSI in high 60s but not yet overbought.
- MACD and Slow Stochastics signalling to go LONG.
- Resistance seen at 1.6359 and then 1.6433.

Strategy:
- Go LONG, look for setups in the hourly chart.
- Pair could go down this morning up to 1.6250 where 20-period MVA and 38.2% Fibonacci on the hourly charts are. If bounce is seen on these levels, I may enter a LONG trade.

EUR/USD

Trend for the day: UP

Fundamental:

At 2:45 pm (Manila) today, French Industrial Production will come out, expected to be bullish for the Euro.

Technical:

- On the daily chart, pair bounced off 1.3800, confirmed by trendlines, 20-day MVA and 38.2% Fibonacci (drawn from April 22 - June 3).
- RSI suggests room for upwar trend.
- MACD and Slow Stochs signal to go LONG.

Strategy:
- Go LONG, look for setup on the hourly chart.
- Pair currently sideways and could retrace to 1.4005 (38.2% Fibo) or 1.3977 (50% Fibo). If bounce is seen on these levels, I may enter a LONG Trade.

USD/CAD

Trend: DOWN

Fundamental:
- At 8:30 pm (Manila) today, Canadian Trade Balance will come out which I expect to be positive for the CAD.

Technical:
- Pair saw a failure off 1.1285 on the daily chart, coninciding with trendlines, 20-day MVA and 50% fibonacci (drawn May 18-June 3).
- RSI still in neutral zone suggesting pair could go anywhere.
- MACD and Slow Stochs suggest to go SHORT.

Strategy:
- Go SHORT, look for setups on the hourly chart.
- Pair currently retracing and could find support at 1.1063, right where 38.2% fibo on the hourly chart and 20-period MVA is. If failure is seen on this level, I may enter SHORT.


AUD/USD

Trend for the day: UP

Fundamentals:
- At 9:30 am (Manila) today, Australian Home Loans data comes out which might be positive for the AUD.

Technical:
- A bounce is seen on the daily chart at 0.7859. This coincides with trendlines, 20-day MVA and 50% fibonacci (drawn May 18-Jun 3).
- RSI, MACD and SLow Stochs suggest room for upward trend.

Strategy:
- Go LONG. Wait for setup on the hourly chart or if Australian Home Loans' data comes out positive.
- Pair in retracement/sideways now and could drop to 0.7959 as support (38.2% fibonacci). Wait for bounce on this level.

June Trade # 14 - BUY GBP/USD

June 29, 2009 3:00 pm (Manila)

2nd half is out at +55 pips/lot for a total of +110 pips.

Summary for this trade:

1st half: + 60 pips
2nd half: +110 pips

Total: +170 pips

Whew!

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June 29, 2009 2:40 pm (Manila)

1st half is out for a total of +60 pips (+30 pips/lot).

Trade is now risk free as 2nd half stops are moved to breakeven.

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June 29, 2009 1:30 pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6037
STOP - 1.5976
Limit 1 - 1.6067
Limit 2 - 1.6092

Pair has retraced this morning but has bounced off the 20-period MVA on the hourly chart. This point also coincides with trend lines and a fibonacci level. The impact of this morning's RICS Housing data in the UK should affect the opening of the Eurozone today.

June Trade # 13 - SELL USD/CAD

June 29, 2009 3:05 pm (Manila)

2nd half is out at +76 pips/lot for a total of +152 pips.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: + 60 pips
2nd Half: +152 pips

Total: +212 pips

Wonderful!

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June 29, 2009 2:35 pm (Manila)

1st half is out moments agos at total of +60 pips (30 pips/lot).

Trade now risk-free as 2nd half stops are moved to breakeven.


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June 29, 2009 1:35 pm (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 1.1176
STOP - 1.1221
Limit 1 - 1.1146
Limit 2 - 1.1100

Please see my reasons for this trade on my commentary about June 9, 2009 Opportunities.

June Trade # 12 - BUY GBP/USD

June 9, 2009 8:18am (Manila)

2nd half is out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st half: + 60 pips
2nd half: 0 pips

Total: +60 pips

Great!! I will be looking to re-enter when opportunities arise.

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June 9,2009 8:00 am (Manila)

Limit 1 is hit at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips. Moving stops of 2nd half to breakeven. Trade now risk-free.

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June 9, 2009 7:05 am (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6058
STOP - 1.5974
Limit 1 - 1.6088
Limit 2 - 1.6163

At 7:01am today, UK RICS House Price Balance came out beating expectations by wide margin. Increased House Prices contribute to inflation which is good for a currency.

On the technical side, see my commentary about opportunites today, June 9th.

June Trade # 11 - BUY EUR/USD

June 9, 2009 5:20 pm (Manila)

2nd half of this trade just got out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +60 pips

Wonderful trade still!

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June 9, 2009 3:10 pm (Manila)

1st half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips.

Trade is now risk-free as 2nd half stops are moved to breakeven.

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June 9, 2009 7:10 am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.3912
STOP - 1.3825
Limit 1 - 1.3942
Limit 2 - 1.3984

AT about 2pm and 2:45pm this afternoon, German and French Trade balances are due to come out with better numbers than previous. These two countries comprise more than 50% of the Eurozone's economy and thus would have significant impact on the Euro.

On the technical side, a hammer on the dailies, pair bounced off trendline, 61.8% fibonacci level and 20-day MVA (see my previous post about opportunities for today, June 9th)

June 9, 2009 Opportunities

June 9, 2009 6:19 am (Manila)

I'm seeing some good opportunities forming-up today on these pairs:

EUR/USD

Fundamental: German and French Trade balances are due to come out this afternoon, both expected to be better than previous month. Good for the Euro.

Technical:
- A hammer formed on the daily chart yesterday.
- Pair bounced-off a trendline and 61.8% fibonacci (April 22-June 8)
- Pair bounced off 20-day MVA

Strategy: Go LONG, wait for setup on the hourly chart.


GBP/USD

Fundamental: RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) House Price Balance data comes out at 7am today, expected to be less negative than previous. Good for the Pound.

Technical:
- Morning star formation the past three days, suggesting more buying momentum.
- Pair bounced of a trendline and 38.2% fibonacci (April 22- June 8)
- Pair bounced off 20-day MVA

Strategy: Go LONG. Buy upon RICS announcement or wait for setup on the hourly chart.


USD/CAD

Fundamental: Oil prices comtinue to rise. Good for the CAD.

Technical:
- Shooting star formation on the daily chart yesterday.
- Failure off trendline and 50% fibonacci (May 18-June 8)
- Failure off 20-day MVA

Strategy: Go SHORT upon setup on the hourly chart.

That's my forecast for today. Let's see what happens.

Update of USD/JPY Long-Term Trade

June 10, 2009 6:15 am (Manila)

Trade is out at +165, +190 and +130 for the three sets of lots. Pair took a downward turn last night and appeared to be heading lower.

Total of +615 pips for this half:

Summary for this LT Trade:

1st Half: +786 pips
2nd Half: +615 pips

Total: +1,401 pips

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June 8, 2009 2:50 pm (Manila)

Bumping this to the top of the page.

The pair has been in retracement mode all day. The three sets I have are currently doing +210, +235 and +175.

Moving all stops to breakeven. All trades are now RISK-FREE!

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June 6, 2009 2:29 pm (Manila)

While I was sound asleep last night, US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised the market - coming out significantly less negative than expected.As a result, the dollar rallied across the board, including against the Yen.

1st Limits of my three sets were all ht last night @ +227, +211 and +174 (+348 for 2 lots of third set), respectively.

All in all, the first halves gave me a total of +786 pips. What a wonderful way to end the week!======================================================

June 5, 2009 6:00 pm (Manila)

This trade is doing pretty well and I am convinced of continued upward movement ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls announcement.I sent in a third set of LONGs. This is even bigger than the first two as each halves contain 2 lots each.

Details as follows:

BUY USD/JPY @ 96.76
STOP - 93.00
Limit 1 - 98.50 (+174)
Limit 2 - 101.00 (+424)

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June 5, 2009 3:30 pm (Manila)

Three days into this long-term trade and it finally broke through into positive territory, currently up +50 pips.

Yesterday, I reigned-in another set of LONGs for this pair and that set is currently doing +20 pips.

Details of 2nd set:

BUY USD/JPY @ 96.39
STOP - 93.00
Limit 1 - 98.50 (+211)
Limit 2 - 101.00 (+461)

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June 2, 2009 3:11 pm (Manila)

BUY USD/JPY @ 96.23
STOP - 93.00
Limit 1 - 98.50 (+227)
Limit 2 - 101.00 (+477)

A flurry of good economic news coming out of Japan. With this, investors should seek better yields from other, higher-yielding, riskier assets (such as currencies with higher interest rates).The pair bounced on the weeky chart which gave me the signal to entr into this long-term trade.

June Trade # 10 - SELL EUR/USD

June 8, 2009 2:30 pm (Manila)

Trade is out at +15 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips!

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June 8, 2009 2:00 pm (Manila)

SELL EUR/USD @ 1.3964
STOP - 1.4000
Limit 1 - 1.3949
Limit 2 - 1.3949

Trading four (4) lots.

Saw that the pair failed to penetrate 1.3990 and is trending down. Will scalp for a few pips as indicators suggest a downtrend.

Ric' Game Plan for Week 24 (June 8-12)

Last week was characterized by a broad dollar rally punctuated by the US Non-Farm Payrolls' announcement which came out significantly better than expected. I believe that the euphoria over last friday nights' NFP announcement will spill-over early on this week. But with good news starting to come out of the US, risk appetite will come back and grip the market and put an end to the dollar's strength.

EUR/USD

With good news coming out of the US and better news expected from the Eurozone, I am long-term dollar bearish. I see short-term support at 1.3776 then 1.3606. Pair is currently testing 20-day MVA near 1.3933.

Strategy: Go LONG on setups and if fundamentals support. However, there is a possibility that the selling momentum over last friday's NFP has not yet abated. So, I will be looking for opportunities to go short on monday.


GBP/USD

The Gondon Brown saga will continue to weigh-in on the Pound. A 'shooting star' formed up on the weekly chart, suggesting that buying for this pair has ended that momentum exists for continued downward trend.

Strategy: Go SHORT on setups and if fundamentals support.

Converging fibonacci levels see support at 1.5696 and then 1.5438. Looking to go LONG if pair bounces on these levels.


USD/JPY

Trade in progress, gunning for 101.00. Three sets of lot are in currentlt doing +234, +258 and +196, respectively.


USD/CAD

With continued rise is crude prices, the CAD could continue to strngthen against the USD. Pair is currently testing 1.2000 support. If this does not hold, next support levels are at 1.1302 and 1.4246.

Strategy: Go SHORT if pair fails off 1.1180 or 1.1302 and if fundamentals support.


AUD/USD

A 'shooting star' also formed up on the weekly chart, suggesting that buying for this pair has ended and there is continued momentum for a downtrend. I see support at 0.7859 and then 0.7764.

Strategy: Go SHORT on setups and if fundamentals support.


NZD/USD

Pair currently testing 0.6211 (50% of fibonacci and 20-period MVA) on the daily charts. Pair could recover with risk appetite in the market in force.

Strategy: Go LONG on setups and if fundamentals support.


That's my gameplans for the major pairs this week.