Summary for the week MAY 11-15 (Week 20 2009)

A number of surprises jolted the market this week and in these unexpected numbers I gained.

Here's the summary for this past week (Week 20, May 11-15).

May Trade # 5 (BUY EUR/USD) - +34 pips
May Trade # 6 (BUY GBP/USD) - +14 pips
May Trade # 7 (BUY GBP/USD) - + 2 pips
May Trade # 8 (SELL NZD/USD) - +48 pips
May Trade # 9 (SELL USD/CHF) - +30 pips

Total ------------------------------ +128 pips

May Trade # 9 - SELL USD/CHF

3:55 pm (Manila)

Both lots are out at +15 pips/lot for a TOTAL of +30 pips. The pair did head lower but began to encounter resistance at the 20-period MVA on the hourly chart.

Another nice trade in my book.

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3:27 pm (Manila)

Trade Details:

SELL USD/CHF @ 1.1077
Stop - 1.1100
Limit 1 - 1.1057
Limit 2 - 1.1037

A bit of a good news for the Swiss economy as year-on-year Retail Sales printed better than expected (+1.2% actual vs. -2.2% forecast). I expect this to be bullish for the Franc and send the pair lower.

Retail Sales is a component of GDP, one that is tied directly to consumers and consumer spending (which is a huge chunk of GDP). The expectation is that better Retail sales will contribute to better GDP later on which is good for the currency.

May Trade # 8 - SELL NZD/USD

3:02 pm (Manila)

After heading south for the past 8 hours, it looks like the best this pair can do is +28 pips/lot.

Both lots are out.

1st lot - +20 pips
2nd lot - +28 pips
Total = +48 pips

Wonderful!

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6:50am (Manila)

Trade Details:

SELL NZD/USD @ 0.5938
STOP - 0.5968
Limit 1 - 0.5918
Limit 2 - 0.5898

Reason: At 6:45 am this morning (Manila), New Zealand's Retail Sales m/m came out worse than expected (-0.4% actual vs. 0.1% forecast). I expect this to weigh in on the NZD's trading today. As such, I am going SHORT.

Retail Sales is a gauge of consumer spending, which is a significant portion of GDP. Better results are bullish for a currency, worse than expected is bearish.

May Trade # 7 - BUY GBP/USD

6:11 am (Manila)

Took the pair out at measly +2 pips this morning. I see no signs of this pair heading further north this morning. I was asleep when the pair went up at +15. I should have set my limits a bit lower... damn! Anyway, a 2-pip gain is still a gain.

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2:21 am (Manila)

US Jobless claims came out worse than expected. Though PPI came out better than expected for the past month, year-on-year PPI still closed out in the negative, hence, the threat of deflation. These news caused this pair to rally north.

Trade details:

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.5225
STOP - 1.5192
Limit 1 - 1. 5245
Limit 2 - 1.5265

-

May Trade # 6 - BUY GBP/USD

4:00 pm (Manila)

After wandering aimlessly for the last three hours, I've had enough of this pair. Took this pair out with meager gain of +7 pips/lot for a total of +14 pips.

I will look to re-enter the trade tonight when the US PPI and UNemployment data come out.

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1:15 pm (Manila)

I am in a trade. Later tonight, a slew of US economic data are due to come out. I expect PPI and Unemployment claims to come out better than expected. With this, I expect risk appetite to grip the market and investors to make a run away from the dollar.

Trade details:

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.5144
STOP - 1.5100
Limit 1 - 1.5174
Limit 2 - 1.5204

-

May Trade # 5 - BUY EUR/USD

9:00 pm (Manila)

Both lots are out at +17 pips/lot for a total of +34 pips. Pair started to stall and encounter resistance near 1.3625.

As I said, just taking a few pips before catching some z's. Nice trade!

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8:40 pm (Manila)

US Core Retail sales printed out worse than expected. With this, I am taking a LONG position on the EUR/USD. Core Retail Sales is a component of GDP, the measure of economic growth (or contraction). Negative Core Retail Sales is indicative of weaker spending in the economy. This is bearish for a currency.

I've been out for the better half of the week taking care of my sick daughter in the hospital. It's my first time to trade in nearly 4 days. Looks like I can haul a few pips before I hit the sack.

My position:

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.3605
STOP - 1.3575
Limit 1- 1.3635
Limit 2 - 1.3665