Trade Forecast Feb 18-22

Two weeks of trading silence caused by nerves rattled by what appears to be a developing currency war between the developed economies, a madman's nuclear blast, and uncertainties caused by Europe being in the spotlight again.

It appears that some nice setups are forming in my favorite pairs and I will be looking to enter again this week.

More to come...

Trade Updates AUD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD

January 30, 2013  10:45pm  (Manila)

US GDP contracted by -0.1% last quarter resulting in a fear rally back into the dollar.

However, this fueled speculation that the Fed on the FOMC meeting later today will continue its purchase of assets this year.  This means that more dollars will be pumped into the markets.

I am keeping my trades and let their stops determine their fates.

AUD/USD trade details here.

GBP/USD trade details here.

USD/CAD trade details here.

January Trade #8 - BUY GBP/USD

January 31, 2013  8:13 pm (Manila)

Second half stopped-out at breakeven.  I am still bullish for this pair and will re-renter once a setup appears.

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January 31, 2013  5:30pm (Manila)

Limit 1 is hit yielding +38 pips.  Second half stop is moved to breakeven.


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January 30, 2013  8:33pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.5784
Stop - 1.5668
Limit 1 - 1.5822
Limit 2 - 1.5889

In my previous post, I mentioned that I am looking to enter this pair.  Tomorrow, a few (though not highly significant for the Cable) will come out expected to print with numbers positive for the Pound.  This, along with the pair's position in the daily and hourly charts, might be the start of a reversal for the Pound which has been hammered for the better part of this month.

Quick View: GBP/USD looks ready to kick upward

Just got a quick glimpse of this pair (GBP/USD).

A couple of things going against it - there has been persistent rumors about a possible UK exit in the EU and a possible credit ratings downgrade against the UK.  The rumors have somewhat died down a bit and it looks like a wave of profit-taking is taking place.

I'll be looking at this pair closely and may enter a BUY trade should the day end with it on a blue candle.  BB, RSI and Slow Stochs show it is oversold.  More screenshots coming as this develops.

January Trade #7 - SELL USD/CAD

February 1, 2013 3:01am (Manila)

Closing this trade at +86 pips/lot for a total of +172 pips.  Trade appears to be stalling in the daily charts.

I am still bullish for this pair - will enter once setup permits.

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February 1, 2013 2:42am (Manila)

Moving stops to protect +20 pips/lot.

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January 29, 2013  10:20 pm (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 1.0051

Stop - 1.0106

Limit 1 - 0.9951

Limit 2 - 0.9851

Reasons are given here.

January Trade #6 - BUY AUD/USD (In Progress)

January 29,2013 10:15pm (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD @ 1.0452
Stop - 1.0339
Limit 1 - 1.0500
Limit 2 - 1.0600

Reasons given in the previous post.

Trade Forecast Jan 28-Feb 1

The FOMC meeting and the USD Rate statement are going to be the market-movers this week, as they have in the past.  I believe that these would fuel risk and power the AUD, EUR, CAD and NZD against the greenback.  Hence, I am preparing to take positions to BUY the EUR/USD, AUD/USD and the NZD/USD and then SELL the USD/CAD.

The EUR/USD broke through the 1.34 level last week and appears to be aiming for 1.35.  However, it is high on the hourly Bolinger Bands and RSI.  So, I am waiting a couple of days and let the profit-taking settle it before entering a BUY position.

A hammer formed on the daily AUD/USD pair - a sign that the selling may be over and the AUD might strengthen against the dollar.  With a slew of US economic indicators due this week expected to print with positive numbers, risk could provide this pair the upward momentum.  Technically, the pair is oversold as suggested by RSI, Slow Stochs and the Bollinger Bands.

The USD/CAD is due for a reversal - it has been walking the upper Bollinger Band into overbought territory.    Expectations of good US numbers printing could fuel risk  into the CAD as more US production means more orders for Canadian oil.

Dark clouds of a looming currency war are forming - Japan two weeks ago announced a massive infusion into the Japanese economy which weakened the Yen against a basket of currencies and the Swiss National Bank came out with guns blazing to hurl the EUR/CHF about 400 pips at the start of the year.

Who will fire the next blow?

The FOMC and Rate statements this week could provide clues.

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January Trade #5 - BUY GBP/USD

January 23, 2013 11:33pm (Manila)

Second half got stopped-out.  Still a winning trade.

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January 23, 2013  9:47pm (Manila)

Limit 1 just got hit at +30 pips/lot.  UK jobless claims fell to mid-2011 levels.

Second half stops now moved to breakeven making the trade risk-free.

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January 23, 2013  2:00pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.5852
Stop - 1.5792
Limit 1 - 1.5882
Limit 2 - 1.5912

The pair appears primed for a rebound in the daily charts.  A set of indicators are due to come out later due expected to be positive for the Pound.

Trade Forecast Jan 21-25

Last week, I stayed on the sidelines as I did not see a favorable setup on my favorite pairs.

Looks like another week wherein my patience will be tested.  AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD and BP/USD are all going through a correction.

The German economy printed an economic growth number that showed t was slowing down - good news and bad news.  Bad news for the Euro in the short-term, which is probably the cue for traders to dump their Euros and take-in profits causing the correction currently underway.  The good news is that Europe's big boy is still growing.  That, coupled with the relative silence in the Eurozone on sovereign debt issues, would be enough to set the bullish tone for the Euro in the long-term.  The 1.34 level seems to be a strong resistance level.  Once the pair breaks that, I am looking to BUY.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both treading identical paths.  I am looking to BUY these pairs once the corrections end and setups present themselves.

For the USD, I'm keeping an eye for what appears to be a looming battle over the US Debt ceiling in Washington.  If another impasse persists, a wave of risk aversion could ensue and the corrections on the dollar pairs could continue.

The world eagerly awaits the BoJ policy statement this week.  Shinzo Abe's government announced the much rumored fiscal stimulus package last week which sent the yen pairs through the roof.  However, at least one Japanese minister publicly acknowledged that a weak yen would not be in the best interest of a Japanese economic recovery, dousing cold water on the JPY pairs.  In the long-term, I believe that USD/JPY is headed upward - correction could happen this week.  Looking to BUY into USD/JPY once correction ends.

No trades this week

No setups... therefore no trades... looking forward to better trading positions next week.

Trade Forecast Jan 14 - 18

Last week saw bulish rallies on the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and downward rally for the USD/CAD that I benefited from.  I took out my trades just in time for the retracements that began friday.  This week, I believe that it will still be the following for these pairs once the retracements are over:

AUD/USD - upward
NZD/USD - upward
USD/CAD - downward

Last week, I hoped that the interest rate decisions for the Euro and the Pound would help the EUR/USD and GBP/USD breakout of the narrow ranges that they have been trading at since last year. The EUR/USD broke through the upside but fizzled out by weekend.  I believe that the relative quietness in the Eurozone and Ben Bernanke's upcoming speech will refuel risk rally and send this pair upward again.

The GBP/USD however, failed to break that barrier.  BOE's Mervin King speaks Tuesday (Manila) and could finally settle this pair's direction in the short-term.  My bet is an upward trend.

This week, one of the most hotly anticipated economic event is US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech (due Tuesday, Manila).  It is my belief that his speech will contain hints of policy that will set the tone for the USD pairs for the short-term.  Hopefully, the USD pairs will breakout of their ranges.

So, I await the speeches before entering any trade.

Trade Updates

January 14, 2013 1:20 pm (Manila)

All trades are out.  Last AUD/USD and USD/CAD lots are out.  See details on respective posts.

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January 11, 2013  3:12 am (Manila)

Trades are still inching up.

C'mon USD/CAD, you've been up there for a week and now just 5 pips away from Limit 1.  You can do it! Hehehe...

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Current status of trades:

All are currently in the green.

AUD/USD - first half is out.  Second half stops are in breakeven.
NZD/USD - first half is out.  Second half stops are in breakeven.
USD/CAD - up +13 pips as of this posting.  Turns out this range has more staying power that the other LT trades - and this is supposed to be a short-tern trade!

January is so far positive - winning!

January Trade #4 - SELL USD/CAD

January 14, 2013 1:20 pm (Manila)

Second half is out at +33 pips.  Took it out as the pair is on the oversold level already and might be due for a correction.

Trade Summary:

1st Half:  +30 pips
2nd Half: +33 pips

Total:  +63 pips


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January 11, 2013  4:00 am (Manila)

Finally, a trade that's intended to be a short-term trade hit its Limit 1 at +30 pips.

Second half stops are moved to breakeven making the trade risk-free.


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January 8, 2013  6:24 pm (Manila)

Ivey PMI came out beating expectations giving the CAD a bullish push but still failed to get the pair to break the range.

Trade is currently at +19 pips/lot.  I am keeping this trade - hopefully at least day more before the chaos of tomorrow.

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January 7,2013 2:30pm (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 0.9873
Stop - 0.9920
Limit 1 - 0.9843
Limit 2 - 0.9813

Later tonight, the Ivey PMI survey will come out with numbers good for the CAD.

On the Hourly chart, a pair of shooting stars formed.  Technical indicators also indicate room for a downward trend in the short term.

January 7-11 Forecast

The biggest news from last week was the breakthrough in the Fiscal Cliff battle in Washington.  However, the saga's end failed to feed risk appetite in the FX market and the dollar rallied by week's end.

Two important rate announcements this week for the EUR and GBP are likely to shatter the ranges in which key pairs have been trading.

My long-term trades stay - I am convinced that they would soon break out bullish.

Monday

SELL USD/CAD once setup appears.

At 11pm, Manila, Ivey PMI survey comes out which is expected to come out positive for the CAD.

Tuesday

BUY AUD/USD once setup appears.

At 8:30am, Manila, the next day, Australian Retail Sales data are due to come out which is forecasted to be positive for the AUD.

Wednesday

No trade for this day.

Thursday

No trading for me on this day.  The ECB and Bank of England are set to make interest rate announcements which could make the market really volatile.  Hopefully, the rate announcements allow the pairs to break the range and set the direction for the short-term.

More volatility could come before, during and right after the conferences that accompany the announcements.  Gotta keep a sharp eye and ear on those.

Friday

No trading this day.  Back to the drawing boards for me.

January Trade #3 - SELL USD/CAD

January 4, 2013  4:10 pm (Manila)

Trade was stopped out at -46 pips/lot for a total of -92 pips.

Dollar is rallying ahead of NFP.  We'll get 'em next time.

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January 3, 2013  12:30 pm (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 0.9863
Stop - 0.9909
Limit 1 - 0.9833
Limit 2 - 0.9803

Tomorrow, US Crude Oil inventories are due to come out which is expected to be more negative than last month.  Translation: good for the Loonie as Canada is the largest exporter of crude oil to the continental United States.

On the charts, the downward trend has resumed - ending more than a week of correction and USD strength partly due the impasse in the US.  On the daily chart, the pair has blasted back into the SELL zone of the B-Band.

2013 Long-Term Trade #2 - BUY NZD/USD

January 11, 2013  9:44 am (Manila)

Second half of the trade is out bringing in +84 pips.

Trade Summary:

1st Half:   +30 pips
2nd Half:  +84 pips

Total:        +114 pips

The 0.8432 region seems to be a strong resistance line going LONG.  Will be keeping an eye on this pair for a breakout.

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January 10, 2013  12:05 am (Manila)

First half is out at +30 pips.

Second half stops are moved to breakeven.

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January 3, 2013  2:10 am (Manila)

BUY NZD/USD @ 0.8375
Stop - 0.8176
Limit 1 - 0.8378
Limit 2 - 0.0.8459

Like the Aussie, a number of things going for this pair - fiscal cliff crisis is over, interest rates remain strong, gold and metal prices soaring and risk appetite.  Technically, the pair has just breached the Buy zone in the B-Bands and has room to move.

2013 Long-Term Trade #1 - BUY AUD/USD

January 14, 2013  1:20 pm (Manila)

Second half is out at +48 pips.  Took it out as the pair is on the oversold level already and might be due for a correction.

Trade Summary:

1st Half:  +60 pips

2nd Half:  +48 pips

Total:  +108 pips

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January 10, 2013  5:29 pm (Manila)

Limit 1 has just been hit at +60 pips.  Second half stop is moved to breakeven.


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January 3, 2013 2:00 am (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD @ 1.0507
Stop - 1.0364
Limit 1 - 1.0567
Limit 2 - 1.0838

I believe a few things are going for this pair to go up - risk appetite is back after going over the fiscal cliff hump this week, gold prices remain strong and the pair has just breached the Buy region.

January Trade #2 - BUY NZD/USD (Live Trade)

January 2, 2013  10:45 am (Manila)

Taking out the second half with +83 pips.  The Hourly Chart show this pair has blasted through the overbought level and may be due for a correction.

Trade Summary:

Limit 1:  +60 pips
Limit 2:  +83 pips

Total:  +143 pips

Who's your Daddy!!!
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January 2, 2013  8:32 am (Manila)

Limit 1 is hit giving the first half of the trade +60 pips.  Second half stops moved to break-even.

Yey!  That's two trades in a row already guaranteed!

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January 2, 2013 6:25 am (Manila)

BUY NZD/USD @ 0.8287
Stop - 0.8223
Limit 1- 0.8317
Limit 2 - 0.8387

Like the earlier AUD/USD trade, Trading this on technicals as indicators show a bounce from last year.  Also, it's the first day of the year trading - risk appetite could boost this pair along with the news of details coming out about the fiscal cliff deal  in the US.

January Trade #1 - BUY AUD/USD (Live Trade)

January 2, 2013 10:40 am (Manila)

Taking out Limit 2 with +84 pips gain.  Looking at the hourly chart, this pair has breached the upper Bollinger Band and is due for a correction.  Will re-enter once a favorable setup appears.

Trade Summary:

Limit 1: +60 pips
Limit 2: +84 pips

Total:  +144 pips

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January 2, 2013  8:31 am (Manila)

Limit 1 is hit gaining the first half of the trade +60 pips.  Stops for second half are moved to break-even.

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January 2, 2013  6:20 am (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD @ 1.0402
Stop - 1.0339
Limit 1 - 1.0432
Limit 2 - 1.0502

Trading this on technicals as indicators show a bounce from last year.  Also, it's the first day of the year trading - risk appetite could boost this pair along with the news of details coming out about the fiscal cliff deal  in the US.

Week 1 Forecast - Dec 31- Jan 4

All eyes are on the US. 

Early reports talk of a fiscal cliff deal between the powers-that-be in Washington DC.  While a deal has been expected, the delay has caused this issue to dominate traders’ sentiment during the last couple of weeks of 2012.

A deal is a deal, regardless of what it contains – the US economy will continue to move and the US government will continue to function.

Sooo, here’s what I am looking at this week.

BUY AUD/USD – will continue the uptick that started last week. No major economic number coming out this week for the AUD but US Non-Farm Payrolls are due on Thursday so I am looking to make a trade on Wednesday and take it out before the NFP numbers come out.  On the technical side, RSI, MACD and Slow Stochs all show the pair primed for a spring-up.  The pair has also bounced off the lower band limit of the Bollinger Bands.

BUY NZD/USD – a bounce started in the last trading day of last year.  No ground-shattering NZD numbers coming out this week but US NFP is coming out on Thursday.  Will be looking to trade this once market opens on Wednesday and take it out before NFP’s trademark chaos.  Technically, the pair is not oversold but this pair has not breached the oversold level since May of last year.  Slow Stochs, Bollinger Bands and MACD all show a bounce and support at the 0.8159 level.

Staying out of any pair that’s got Euro and Cable.

Hello 2013, Hello Forex!

It's 2013 and we're still here!  I guess the Mayans had a different idea when they left their calendar - like "Let's create this great calendar that ends abruptly and see how the hell people react a thousand years from now...".

Enough said, I have not taken care of this blog for the past two years - last post was wayyyyyy 2010.  Time for redemption.  This blog goes back online January 1st, 2013 and will be until the world ends... or maybe...

I have no excuse except that I am just plain lazy to trade and to post.  It's New Year and time to get back on my feet.  Trading... I'm back!