Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Week 1 Forecast - Dec 31- Jan 4


All eyes are on the US. 

Early reports talk of a fiscal cliff deal between the powers-that-be in Washington DC.  While a deal has been expected, the delay has caused this issue to dominate traders’ sentiment during the last couple of weeks of 2012.

A deal is a deal, regardless of what it contains – the US economy will continue to move and the US government will continue to function.

Sooo, here’s what I am looking at this week.

BUY AUD/USD – will continue the uptick that started last week. No major economic number coming out this week for the AUD but US Non-Farm Payrolls are due on Thursday so I am looking to make a trade on Wednesday and take it out before the NFP numbers come out.  On the technical side, RSI, MACD and Slow Stochs all show the pair primed for a spring-up.  The pair has also bounced off the lower band limit of the Bollinger Bands.

BUY NZD/USD – a bounce started in the last trading day of last year.  No ground-shattering NZD numbers coming out this week but US NFP is coming out on Thursday.  Will be looking to trade this once market opens on Wednesday and take it out before NFP’s trademark chaos.  Technically, the pair is not oversold but this pair has not breached the oversold level since May of last year.  Slow Stochs, Bollinger Bands and MACD all show a bounce and support at the 0.8159 level.

Staying out of any pair that’s got Euro and Cable.

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