Trade Plans for August 7

No doubt that the US Non-Farm Payrolls tonight will be the biggest market-mover. But before that, here are some trade plans.

BUY EUR/USD - German Trade Balance comes out at 2:00 pm (Manila), expected to be better than previous. This should be enough to give this pair a lift ahead of NFP. Currently, the pair is treading higher on the hourly chart. I will wait for it to break past the hourly 20-period MVA and enter into the buy zone before entering a trade.

SELL GBP/USD - UK PPI comes out at 4:30 pm (Manila). It is expected to be in the negative which is bad for the Pound. On the hourly chart, the pair is trending higher. This may just be profit-taking after yesterday's drop. I will wait for it to register a failure near 1.6844 before entering a trade.

BUY USD/CAD - Canadian Unemployment Rate is expected to register an increase. This should be bad for the CAD. Currently, on the hourlies, the pair is heading lower. I am waiting for a bounce near 1.0730 before entering LONG.

August Trade #3 - BUY GBP/USD

August 6, 2009 7:00 pm (Manila)

Surprise, surprise, surprise. The BoE dropped bomb on the market today with an unexpected increase in their QE program. I guess somebody decided that they want a real recovery --- and fast! And they're willing to get the Pound get pounded in the process. Ouch!

Trade is out at -57 pips/lot for a total of -228 pips. There are days like this.

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August 6, 2009 1:50pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.7004
Stop - 1.6947
Limit 1 - 1.7034
Limit 2 - 1.7064

Tonight, the BoE releases their interest rate decision. It is expected that the central bank would keep interest rates steady and the Quantitative Easing Program untouched. Such moves would be a boost of confidence for the Pound.

August Trade #2 - BUY GBP/USD

Aug 5, 2009 6:00 pm (Manila)

The second half is out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +60 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +60 pips

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Aug 5, 2009 4:40 pm (Manila)

First half is out at +30 pips/lot for a total of +60 pips. Second half is not risk-free with stops moved to breakeven.

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Aug 5, 2009 4:30pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6966 (4 lots)
Stop - 1.6914
Limit 1 - 1.6996
Limit 2 - 1.7026

A slew of economic indicators just came out --- all positive for the Pound. Hopefully, this would be enough to break the deadlock that has been in place on the USD-pairs for the past 24 hours.

August Trade #1 - BUY GBP/USD

Aug 4, 2009 3:04 pm (Manila)

2nd half is out at breakeven.

Summary for this trade:

1st Half: +40 pips
2nd Half: 0 pips

Total: +40 pips

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Aug 4, 2009 2:40 pm (Manila)

First half is out at +20 pips/lot for a total of +40 pips. 2nd half stops moved to breakeven to make the trade risk-free.

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Aug 4, 2009 2:30 pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6974 (4 lots)
Stop - 1.6915
Limit 1 - 1.6994
Limit 2 - 1.7014

At 4:30 pm today (Manila), UK Construction PMI comes out expected to be better than previous.

This is a survey of Construction Insdustry Purchasing Managers. Their views on future purchases is a leading indicator of econoic health. Higher number suggests that companies are more likely to make purchases and thus increase demand for the country's currency.

Trade Plans for August 4

I'm trading again after nearly a month.

The theme across the Forex market today is economic recovery. Data from the past week are screaming that the worst may be over. As such, risk appetite is in the market.

For today, here are the pairs I am looking at:

AUD/USD - Australia's Housing Price Index (HPI) just came out at a whopping 4.2%, significantly better than the 2.1% expectation. The AUD has been in a rally for the past three hours, rising more than 40 pips. However, the pair is currently walking the upper bollinger band and is oversold. I will wait for the pair to drop to somewhere near 0.8406 (38.2% fibo and 20-period MVA) before going LONG. Also, at 12:30 today (Manila), the RBA releases their latest rate statement. No fireworks expected but then again...

GBP/USD - At 4:30 pm today (Manila), UK Construction PMI comes out, expected to be slightly better than previous. This could be another catalyst for continued move up of the Pound. the pair is currently oversold (RSI) and threading the upper bollinger band. Will wait for it to drop before going LONG.