May Trade # 4 - BUY EUR/USD

2:35 pm (Manila)

Both lots are out as the pair stalled when it began to bang on the upper bollinger band.

Trade came out at +15 pips/lot for a total of +30 pips.

Great!

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2:00 pm (Manila)

German Trade Balance came out better than expected (8.9B vs expected 7.7B). This is good news for the Eurozone. A better-than-expected trade balance could be a sign of stability in the Eurozone as exports bested imports. The trade balance is a contributor to GDP. Germany is the Eurozone's largest economy and thus, is most watched by traders and investors.

Bollinger bands show a potential for consolodation. However, RSI, MACD and Slow Stochastics indicate enough room for an upward swing. Bounce also found around 1.3335 (61.8% Fibonacci)

Hence, my position:

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.3410
STOP - 1.3380
Limit 1 - 1.3430
Limit 2 - 1.3460

May Trade # 3 - BUY GBP/USD

1:06PM (Manila)

Closed-out this trade with +12 pips/lot for a total of +24 pips. The pair is encountering resistance at the 20-period MVA between the bollinger bands.

Not bad in my book, considering that I was going up against the trend for the day.


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12:30pm (Manila)

I know I said that I will wait for the UK PPI m/m at 4:30pm announcement before I enter to trade this pair. But Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD and Slow Stochastics inidcated that this pair is about to zoom up after a deep dive this morning.

Hence, I am in this position;

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.5009
Stop - 1.4955
Limit 1 - 1.5029
Limit 2 - 105049

Forecasts for Friday, May 8

Here are my potential trades for tomorrow (all are in Manila time which is GMT +8):

May 8, 2009

9:30 am

BUY or SELL AUD/USD depending on result of RBA Monetary Policy Statement (http://www.rba.gov.au).

2:00 pm

BUY EUR/USD - German Trade Balance comes out at 2:00pm. LONG or SHORT positions depending on result. More likely to go LONG.

4:30 pm

GBP/USD

UK PPI Imput m/m comes out. Depending on the result. If it comes out better than expected, I'll go LONG. If it's weaker than expected, I'll go SHORT. More likely to go SHORT.

May Trade # 2 - BUY NZD/USD

7:05 am (Manila)

Oops... looks like my Limits were too tight. Both just got hit moments ago.

Summary for this trade:

Lot 1 - + 10 pips
Lot 2 - + 40 pips
Total - + 50 pips

This is my strategy now, take it slow and easy. Go for a few pips and exit without a lot of stress.

What a wonderful second trade for May!

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6:45 am (Manila)

BUY NZD USD @ 0.5857
STOP - 0.5827
Limit 1 - 0.5867
Limit 2 - 0.5897

New Zealand's unemployment rate came out better than expected. This is bullish for the NZD. As such, I am going LONG.

I am placing a very tight Limit 1 as I need to leave today to attend a seminar (for my future career) and will be unable to keep an eye on this.

May Tade #1 - BUY GBP/USD

Unfortunately, this pair reversed direction last night and my second lot got stopped out @ breakeven.

This trades summary:

1st lot - +30 pips
2nd lot - 0 pips
Total - +30 pips

Great first trade for May!


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4:40 pm (Manila)

With this trade risk-free, I'm packing my bags and heading home. Trade is hovering around +30 pips. We'll see tomorrow how this trade ends.

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4:36 pm (Manila)

My first lot just got hit @ +30 pips. Moving Stop on the second half to breakeven. Trade is now risk free.


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I just saw the UK Services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) expected to close out bullish for the Pound by 4:30pm (Manila).

With this, I entered the trade with:

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.5060
STOP @ 1.5000
Limit 1 - 1.5090
Limit 2 - 1.5120

PMI is a leading indicator of economic health. With expected positive numbers, investors will take this as a cue of a possible start of the end of this crisis in the UK that has gripped the whole world. A pound rally is in the works if analysts' predictions come out right.

Ric's Status

I've been out since saturday and unable to trade. I was laso unable to publish my forecasts for this week's currency action.

I'm currently in a training and will be out until Thursday (Manila time).