OCTOBER TRADE #6 - SELL USD/CAD

Nov. 2, 2009 9:27am (Manila)

Just got back in after the All Saint's Day holiday. Unfortunately, the pair reversed as fear slipped back in the forex market as world stocks fall.

This trade fell -146 pip/lot for a total of -584 pips.

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Oct 30, 2009 10:00am (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 1.0662 (4 lots)
Stop - 1.0808
Limit 1 - 1.0632
Limit 2 - 1.0600

On the daily chart, a reversal seems to be in place which stopped the USD rally dead cold.

On the fundamentals' side, Oil races toward $85 a barrel and the US economy grew by a surprising 3.5% the past quarter. A combination of risk appetite and expectations of growing demand for oil should be positive for the CAD. Fasten your seatbelts folks, looks like high prices at the pump are here to stay.

Why this might be important: Canada is the single largest supplier of oil to the continental United States --- and not a middle-east oil baron. The US GDP number last night might lead to suggest further improvements in the US economy in the coming months. Improving US economy means more demand for oil --- and the US gulps a lot! This should keep oil prices high which should spur demand for the CAD.

OCTOBER TRADE #5 - BUY EUR/USD

Nov 2, 2009 9:32am (Manila)

Trade got stopped-out at -76 pips/lot for a total of -304 pips.

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Oct 30, 2009 9:23am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4836 (4 Lots)
Stop - 1.4760
Limit 1 - 1.4866
Limit 2 - 1.4918

German Retails Sales data comes out at 3:00pm today. It is expected to be positive for the Euro. This, combined with the positive US GDP data last night should trigger further risk appetite and drive this pair higher. On the daily charts, there is a bounce which could be the start of the reversal of a trend which saw the dollar hammer the other majors this past week.

Why this might be important: Germany is the biggest economy in the Eurozone. Retail Sales impacts consumer spending which is a big chunk of GDP. The expectation is that higher retail sales will translate to higher GDP number, which will have a domino effect of causing price pressures which would result in higher inflation which will cause the European Central Bank to raise interest rates as part of the inflation-control mandate. Quite a long trail, isn't it?

OCTOBER TRADE #4 - BUY NZD/USD

Nov 20, 2009 8:58am (Manila)

2nd Set of this trade is out at breakeven. USD strength is due to Central Bankers' talk-up of the dollar and bad news about US Housing data.

Summary:

1st Set: +1,044 pips
2nd Set: 0 pips

Total: +1,044 pips

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Nov 18, 2009 7:00 pm (Manila)

I'm taking out Set 1 of this trade for a gain of +261 pips/lot for a total of 1,044 pips.

Second set (4 lots) currently running at +176 pips/lot. Stops moved to breakeven making the rest of the trade risk-free.

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Nov 11, 2009 10:52am (Manila)

12 days after, trade is up

Set 1 (4 lots): +196 pips/lot
Set 2 (4 lots): +113 pips/lot

Stops remain at starting levels.

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October 30, 2009 9:02 am (Manila)

BUY NZD/USD (4 Lots) @ 0.7302
Stop - 0.6801
Limit 1 - 0.7630
Limit 2 - 0.8222

On the weekly and daily charts, this pair has dropped from last week and appears to be headed for a return flight. Also, Positive economic indicators for the Kiwi and USD (primarily the US GDP data last night) should spur risk appetite.

OCTOBER TRADE #3 - BUY AUD/USD

Nov 20, 2009 9:01am (Manila)

The rest of the trade is out due the retreat caused by the strength of the dollar.

2 lots out @ +50 pips/lot for a total of +200 pips.
2 lots out @ +130 pips/lot for a total of +520 pips.

Summary for this trade:

1st Set Total: +914 pips
2nd Set Total: +720 pips

Overall Total: +1,634 pips


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Nov 11, 2009 4:37 pm (Manila)

Limit 1 is hit for 2 sets of this trade:

1st Set: +268 pips/lot for a total of +536 pips.
2nd Set: +189 pips/lot for a total of +378 pips.

Total: +914 pips

Stops of remaining half moved to breakeven making the trade risk-free. Nice!!!

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Nov 11, 2009 10:47 am (Manila)

After 12 days trades are up significantly. Stops remain where they are:

1st Set (4 lots): +233 pips/lot
2nd Set (4 lots): +153 pips/lot

A number of economic indicators from China just came out negative (CPI y/y, Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y and PPI y/y) and is contributing to a slight pull-back. However, I remain confident that the AUD will continue to appreciate vs the USD. Chinese Industrial y/y Production just came out better than expected.

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Oct 30, 2009 9:00am (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD (4 lots) @ 0.9146
Stop - 0.8475
Limit 1 - 0.9335
Limit 2 - 0.9849

On the weekly chart, this pair has dropped significantly from last week and appears to be headed to a return flight. Also, US GDP data last night came out positive which should trigger a wave of risk appetite and propel this pair higher.

Trade Plan for the USD - Oct 29 '09

A flurry of indicators since last week had risk-aversion pervade the whole nine yards of the FX market. As a result, he USD has been on a rampage all week. This could tonight, though with preliminary US GDP data and Unemployment Claims expected to come out in the positive.

If the numbers come out better than expected, the major USD pairs could turn around after about 4-8 hours of volatility. However, if things continue to be as bad as the past week has become, we could see theses pairs reach intra-month lows.

My plan... to wait in 'ambush' for either of the eventualities.

Trade details to be posted soon.

OCTOBER TRADE #2 - SELL AUD/USD

Oct 30, 2009 9:00am (Manila)

Unfortunately, trade went the other way and got stopped-out. Total loss of -340 pips.

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Oct 29, 2009 8:00 am (Manila)

SELL AUD/USD @ 08966
Stop - 0.9051
Limit 1 - 0.8936
Limit 2 - 0.8874

Australian HIA New Homes Sales printed at a dim -4.5% vs. expectation of an 11% increase. I expect this to dash hopes of a continued rally of the Aussies' economy.

New Home Sales is a forward-looking indicator. The rationale is that if there are fewer home buyers today, there would be fewer buyers of goods needed to fill those houses in the future --- there would be less demand for construction supplies for renovation, less demand for electronics and appliances, etc.

This is my live trade!