Summary for the week June 1-5 (Week 23 2009)

The week started out hot with three successive winning trades. After that, hell broke loose as the dollar began to turn. Three central banks kept interest rates low that contributed to the sideways trend that preceeded tthe dollar's rise.

I entered a long-term trade on the USD/JPY, following it like a hawk every pip of the way. Three sets of longs were entered and by the end of the week, boosted by the surprise of the US Non-Farm Payrolls, the first halves of the three pairs gave me an ear-to-ear grin.

It was highs on both end for me this week and here are the details:

June Trade #1
LONG EUR/CHF + 36 pips

June Trade #2
LONG GBP/USD + 30 pips

June Trade #3
SHORT USD/CAD +114 pips

June Trade #4
LONG EUR/USD - 80 pips

June Trade #5
LONG AUD/USD + 40 pips

June Trade #6
LONG GBP/USD -152 pips

June Trade #7
SHORT AUD/USD - 56 pips

June Trade #8
LONG GBP/USD +113 pips

June Trade #9
LONG AUD/USD + 30 pips

June LT Trade #1
LONG USD/JPY +786 pips

TOTAL +861 pips

What a week!

June Trade # 9 - BUY AUD/USD

June 5, 2009 5:30 pm (Manila)

2nd lot got stopped-out at breakeven. The Aussie took a nose-dive when it encountered resistance at the upper bollinger band on the hourly chart. Great trade nonetheless.

Summary:

1st Lot: +30 pips
2nd Lot: 0 pips
Total: +30 pips

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June 5, 2009 4:00 pm (Manila)

After walking sideways over the last six and a half hours, the pair finally broke through into positive zone and hit limit 1 at +30 pips.

Stop for second lot has been moved to breakeven to make the trade risk-free.

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June 5, 2009 9:30 am (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD @ 0.8034
STOP - 0.7964
Limit 1- 0.8064
Limit 2 - 0.8120

At 7:50 am (Manila) this morning, Australian Construction Index rose sharply surprising the market. I believe that this, along with the fact the the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) kept interest rates unchanged at 3%, will sthrengthen the Aussie even further and send this pair up.

Confidence in the construction industry is a leading indicator of economic health. Generally, when construction companies feel good about business conditions, they anticipate better construction orders to come in. It will then ripple into spending (both the company and suppliers) which will help boost GDP.

On the technical side, the pair bounced on the daily chart. RSI, MACD and Slow Stochastics also show signs of room for an upward movement.

June Trade # 8 - BUY GBP/USD

June 4, 2009 6:00 pm (Manila)

2nd lot is out at +83 pips.

Summary for this Trade:

1st Lot: +30 pips
2nd Lot: +83 pips
Total: +113 pips

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June 4, 2009 3:45 pm (Manila)

1st lot is out at +30 pips. Moving stop of 2nd lot to breakeven to make trade risk-free.

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June 4, 2009 3:30 pm (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6339
Stop - 1.6195
Limit 1 - 1.6369
Limit 2 - 1.6422

In about a half hour or so, UK HPI data comes out which should be positive for the Pound. HPI (Housing Prices Index) is a leading indicator of economic health. When housing prices go up, it's a sign that demand is putting a stress on supply. What will happen next is that people who buy houses today (the reason why HPI went up) will buy for furnishings and neccessities on the house, impacting other industries and stressing their own supply situation.

A bounce is seen on the hourly charts which gives me confidence that this pair may be headed on an upward move again.

Also, RSI, MACD and Slow Stochs on the hourly chart support an uptrend.

June Trade # 7 - SELL AUD/USD

June 4, 2009 11:45 am (Manila)

Trade is out at -28 pips/lot for a total of -56 pips. It appears that better trade balance failed to sustain the dollar's strength yesterday. Tough luck!

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June 4, 2009 9:35 am (Manila)

SELL AUD/USD @ 0.8012
Stop - 0.8052 (-40)
Limit 1 - 0.7982 (+30)
Limit 2 - 0.7942 (+70)

Australian Trade Balance disappoints. This, combined with the technical reason of a failure on both the daily and hourly charts, makes me believe that this pair is headed lower before the interest rate announcements from the ECB, BOE and BOC.

The dollar rally began yesterday and this could be the start of a pullback for USD pairs. RSI, MACD and Slow Stochastics on the daily chart suggest a move down has began.

June Trade # 6 - BUY GBP/USD

June 3, 2009 4:30 pm (Manila)

Bought GBP/USD @ 1.6622. Reason is that UK Services PMI came out better that expected (zooming past 50). I believe this should be bullish fo the Pound. However, right after I entered, the pair shot to breakeven and then dropped like a rock. Within a few minutes, this trade got stopped-out at -76 pips/lot for a total of -152 pips.

What gives?

Well, there are going to be days when the market will behave like a mad bull. This may be one of them.

I'm packing my bags for the day. Looking forward for tomorrow.

June Trade # 5 - BUY AUD/USD

June 3, 2009 12:30 pm (Manila)

Manually took out both lots at +20 pips apiece for a total of +40 pips. Took it oout when pair encountered resistance near 0.8242 level.

There are lots of fish in the ocean but you can't catch them all. I am satisfied for now with 40 fishes. There will always be tomorrow to catch more.

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June 3, 2009 9:36 am (Manila)

BUY AUD/USD @ 0.8222
STOP - 0.8171
Limit 1 - 0.8252
Limit 2 - 0.8300

A few minutes ago, Australian q/q GDP came out better than expected and on the positive zone. I expect this to be bullish for the AUD.

June Long Term Trade # 1 - LONG USD/JPY

June 6, 2009 2:29 pm (Manila)

While I was sound asleep last night, US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised the market - coming out significantly less negative than expected.

As a result, the dollar rallied across the board, including against the Yen.

1st Limits of my three sets were all ht last night @ +227, +211 and +174 (+348 for 2 lots of third set), respectively.

All in all, the first halves gave me a total of +786 pips. What a wonderful way to end the week!

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June 5, 2009 6:00 pm (Manila)

This trade i doing pretty well and I am convinced of continued upward movement ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls announcement.

I sent in a third set of LONGs. This is even bigger than the first two as each halves contain 2 lots each.

Details as follows:

BUY USD/JPY @ 96.76
STOP - 93.00
Limit 1 - 98.50 (+174)
Limit 2 - 101.00 (+424)

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June 5, 2009 3:30 pm (Manila)

Three days into this long-term trade and it finally broke through into positive territory, currently up +50 pips.

Yesterday, I reigned-in another set of LONGs for this pair and that set is currently doing +20 pips.

Details of 2nd set:

BUY USD/JPY @ 96.39
STOP - 93.00
Limit 1 - 98.50 (+211)
Limit 2 - 101.00 (+461)


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June 2, 2009 3:11 pm (Manila)

BUY USD/JPY @ 96.23
STOP - 93.00
Limit 1 - 98.50 (+227)
Limit 2 - 101.00 (+477)

A flurry of good economic news coming out of Japan. With this, investors should seek better yields from other, higher-yielding, riskier assets (such as currencies with higher interest rates).

The pair bounced on the weeky chart which gave me the signal to entr into this long-term trade.

June Trade # 4 - BUY EUR/USD

June 2, 2009 3:30 pm (Manila)

Trade got stopped-out at -40 pips/lot for a total of -80 pips. Looks like a retracement of the currencies that strengthened against the dollar has began. USD is strong across the board.

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June 2, 2009 7:30 am (Manila)

BUY EUR/USD @ 1.4171
STOP - 1.4131 (-40)
Limit 1 - 1.4205 (+34)
Limit 2 - 1.4235 (+64)

The dollar fought back and this pair went on a brief retracement this morning but a bounce formed on the hourly charts at about 6-7am.

Fibo, RSI, MACD and Slow Stochs indicate a room for an upward thrust.

June Trade # 3 - SELL USD/CAD

June 1, 2009 4:33 pm (Manila)

Lot 2 is out at + 84 pips.

Trade Summary:

Lot 1 +30 pips
Lot 2 +84 pips

Total + 114 pips

Great day 1 in June!

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June 1, 2009 3:00 pm (Manila)

Lot 1 is out at +30 pips. Moving second lot to breakeven to make this trade risk-free.


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June 1, 2009 9:00 am (Manila)

SELL USD/CAD @ 1.0884
STOP - 1.0940
Limit 1 - 1.0854 (+30)
Limit 2 - 1.0800 (+84)

Reasons:

1.) Trading on speculation. At 8:30 pm toninght (Manila), Canadian m/m GDP data comes out which I expect to be better than expected. This is bullish for the CAD.

2.) A setup to SELL formed on the hourly chart this morning after a brief retracement.

3.) I believe Dollar weakness continues and will spill-over this week.

June Trade # 2 - BUY GBP/USD

June 1, 2009 2:03 pm (Manila)

Unfortunately the second half of this trade got stopped-out at breakeven. A wonderful trade nonetheless.

Summary:

1st Lot: +30 pips
2nd Lot: 0 pips

Total: +30 pips

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June 1, 2009 9:19 am (Manila)

Limit 1 has been hit at +30 pips.

Stop for 2nd lot has been moved to breakeven. Trade now risk-free.


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June 1, 2009 9:05 am (Manila)

BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6193
STOP - 1.6149 (-44)
Limit 1 - 1.6223 (+30)
Limit 2 - 1.6300 (+107)

Reasons:

1.) I'm trading on speculation. At 4:30 PM this afternoon (Manila), UK PMI data will come out. This is expected to be positive for the Pound and thus will press the dollar lower.

2.) I believe that the dollar sell-off that started last week is not over and will continue this week.

3.) A setup formed on the hourly charts. A hammer bounced off 1.6159.

June Trade # 1 - BUY EUR/CHF

June 1, 2009 1:30 pm

This pair stalled near the bolliger top band. Pulling this out manually with a respectable gain of +18 pips/lot for a total of +36 pips.

Great start for the week!

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June 1, 2009 7:00am (Manila)

It's another month of trading!

Here's my first trade for June:

BUY EUR/CHF @ 1.5088
STOP - 1.4988
Limit 1 - 1.5118
Limit 2 - 1.5200

A hammer formed on the daily charts indicating that the selling on this pair might be over. Also, the pair is nearing 1.5000 which is a level most analysts think that the SNB wants to maintain.