Gameplan for June 10th

June 10, 2009 6:30 am (Manila)

Yesterday, I was right on the money about EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD. Today, I am still seeing some promising opportunities on the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

GBP/USD

Trend for today: UP (the trend is my friend, so I will not go against it)

Fundamental:

At about 4:30 pm (Manila) this afternoon, UK month-on-month Manufacturing Production will come out expected to be better than previous --- good for the Pound. Also, the Gordon Brown saga appears to have mellowed down allowing the Sterling to resume significant upward momentum yesterday.

Technical:

- Pair bounced on the daily chart two days ago and looks to confirm an upward trend.
- This coincides with 20-day MVA and 38.2% Fibonacci drwan from April 22 - June 3rd.
- RSI in high 60s but not yet overbought.
- MACD and Slow Stochastics signalling to go LONG.
- Resistance seen at 1.6359 and then 1.6433.

Strategy:
- Go LONG, look for setups in the hourly chart.
- Pair could go down this morning up to 1.6250 where 20-period MVA and 38.2% Fibonacci on the hourly charts are. If bounce is seen on these levels, I may enter a LONG trade.

EUR/USD

Trend for the day: UP

Fundamental:

At 2:45 pm (Manila) today, French Industrial Production will come out, expected to be bullish for the Euro.

Technical:

- On the daily chart, pair bounced off 1.3800, confirmed by trendlines, 20-day MVA and 38.2% Fibonacci (drawn from April 22 - June 3).
- RSI suggests room for upwar trend.
- MACD and Slow Stochs signal to go LONG.

Strategy:
- Go LONG, look for setup on the hourly chart.
- Pair currently sideways and could retrace to 1.4005 (38.2% Fibo) or 1.3977 (50% Fibo). If bounce is seen on these levels, I may enter a LONG Trade.

USD/CAD

Trend: DOWN

Fundamental:
- At 8:30 pm (Manila) today, Canadian Trade Balance will come out which I expect to be positive for the CAD.

Technical:
- Pair saw a failure off 1.1285 on the daily chart, coninciding with trendlines, 20-day MVA and 50% fibonacci (drawn May 18-June 3).
- RSI still in neutral zone suggesting pair could go anywhere.
- MACD and Slow Stochs suggest to go SHORT.

Strategy:
- Go SHORT, look for setups on the hourly chart.
- Pair currently retracing and could find support at 1.1063, right where 38.2% fibo on the hourly chart and 20-period MVA is. If failure is seen on this level, I may enter SHORT.


AUD/USD

Trend for the day: UP

Fundamentals:
- At 9:30 am (Manila) today, Australian Home Loans data comes out which might be positive for the AUD.

Technical:
- A bounce is seen on the daily chart at 0.7859. This coincides with trendlines, 20-day MVA and 50% fibonacci (drawn May 18-Jun 3).
- RSI, MACD and SLow Stochs suggest room for upward trend.

Strategy:
- Go LONG. Wait for setup on the hourly chart or if Australian Home Loans' data comes out positive.
- Pair in retracement/sideways now and could drop to 0.7959 as support (38.2% fibonacci). Wait for bounce on this level.